AUDUSD continues to bang against the center line of the channel from the 6/15 low. Action since the 9/9 low is overlapping, brutal, and clearly corrective. Below .7250 would now constitute a bearish break of the channel from the 6/15 low and shift focus to the full channel extension, which intersects the key .7064 level in the middle of next week.
USDSEK dipped to 8.6844 on on 9/10 before turning up. I’m viewing that low as a ‘higher low’ within the bullish cycle from the 9/1 low. Price closed slightly above channel resistance from the March high today. Strength above 8.8050 would complete a head and shoulders bottom and set an objective at 9.0150.
WYCKOFF DISTRIBUTION SCHEMATIC The last 2 trading days have been awfully quiet so now is a good time for some educational yet applicable content. I have copies of Wyckoff schematics hanging on the wall in my office. Google Richard Wyckoff if you are not familiar with his work. I was looking at the distribution schematic…
The most bearish time of the year for equities is now through October 9th. 9/10 – QQQ pushed slightly above the noted 279 before turning down. The next level of interest is the long term parallel (magenta line) near 257. The chart with volume studies below highlights some important observations. First, VWAP from the high was resistance today. Second, the importance of 237.50 (February high) is magnified by VWAP from the March low.
My working assumption is that a B wave triangle ended today at 1975.20 (exactly the 8/3 low) in gold. I am bearish against today’s high and looking for weakness lower in a C wave towards 1800 or so by the end of the month.
USDOLLAR has yet to break above 12087 and the rally has failed so far a the upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high. I’m still leaning towards action since 7/31 as a base that price will work higher from. Watch for support now near 11973.
QQQ has broken down and the same levels are in focus that were noted yesterday (text below). All I’m adding is that if price bounces from here (a gap up on news tomorrow for example) then 279 is proposed resistance.
ES made a bearish weekly volume reversal last week. Since the 2009 low, there have been 3 other bearish reversals and 1 bullish reversal. Reversals in 2010 and early 2018 identified interim highs.
SPY and SPX (looking at SPX today to show more price history) traded through the line off of the January 2018 and February 2020 highs today. Let’s see where we finish the week though. Extending the line back in time reveals a lot of important pivots around or right at the line…I call this an ‘angle influence’. The monthly chart below shows that the line tags the 1932 and 1942 lows as well! Finally, I’ve shared several charts of tech names that made bearish volume reversals today (tech has been the high flyer).