Market Update – September 17

AUDUSD 4 HOUR

AUDUSD continues to bang against the center line of the channel from the 6/15 low.  Action since the 9/9 low is overlapping, brutal, and clearly corrective.  Below .7250 would now constitute a bearish break of the channel from the 6/15 low and shift focus to the full channel extension, which intersects the key .7064 level in the middle of next week.

EURUSD 4 HOUR

Today’s high was on the underside of the line of former channel support from the 5/14 low (only the lower parallel is shown on this chart).  Is this the final ‘kiss’ goodbye for EURUSD?  It’s of course promising from a bearish perspective that the upper parallel has continued to provide resistance as well.  Below 1.1750 is still needed in order to confirm the breakdown and set a near term bearish target of 1.1490.  The lower parallel from the bearish fork intersects this level on Monday.

9/10 – Just about pip perfect in EURUSD…high today was 1.1918.  Below 1.1750 would confirm a head and shoulders top.  The head and shoulders top objective would be 1.1490…in line with the March high!  The week open at 1.1845 is proposed resistance for Friday and action since the 9/3 low ‘counts’ as a complex flat correction (see 30 minute chart below).

AUDJPY HOURLY

AUDJPY is below 76.80…but barely.  I don’t consider today’s drop a true break.  Continue to watch for resistance near 76.80 but EURJPY short is a better looking setup in my opinion.

9/15 – Bottom line, a drop below 76.80 would constitute a bearish break of the channel from the 6/12 low in AUDJPY.  I’d be looking for a full retracement of the rally from 6/12 (back to 72.50) and probably the top side of the line from the 2118 high (magenta line) near 71.70.

EURJPY HOURLY

EURJPY confirmed the month long topping pattern today and focus is on the mentioned 121.80.  Resistance should be the breakdown level (former support and the June high) at 124.40.

9/15 – EURJPY is carving a possible topping pattern since the 8/13 high and a short term bearish fork is in play.  The 25 line is proposed resistance near 125.15.  A break below 124.44 would complete the topping pattern and set a measured objective at 121.80.  Price has also run into a clearly important long term level (see below).