EURUSD low today was 1.1263. How about that trendline! I can’t think of a better technical combination, a Fibonacci level and long term well-defined trendline, to mark an important turning point. I am bullish against the low. The first hurdle on the upside is the weekly opening price at 1.1446 followed by former support at 1.1525. Support should be 1.1290-1.1300.
BTCUSD has followed through on its 11/10 reversal. I love this setup. Price has broken the median line, which is now proposed resistance along with the 11/12 low at 62295. Initial downside focus is channel support (blue line) in the 52000s. A longer term view is below.
DXY DAILY DXY is ticks from the median line of the structure that originates at the January low. If I were smarter then I would have stayed bullish the buck as long as price stayed within the structure. Lesson learned! That said, be aware of 95.70s for possible resistance. That’s the median line and June 2020 low….
GBPUSD held VWAP from the March 2020 low on Friday. As noted last week, lower parallel support is slightly lower near 1.3320 (see below) though. If the rally from last week’s low extends into a small 5 wave advance then I’ll want to but a small dip.
The cleanest setup from my vantage point at the moment is in gold. Price has broken out (remember 1834 was possible resistance…it didn’t do anything so it’s support) and 1834 is proposed support. Former resistance is reinforced by the top side of the line off of the 2020 and May highs along with the center line of the short term bullish channel (which was formerly resistance). Upside focus is the May high at 1916.
So much for all of that fancy Elliott mumbo jumbo. Remember the ‘5 waves down at multiple degree…blah blah blah’. USDOLLAR (quarter each of EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD) ripped to its highest level since September 2020 today. Sometimes various methods work and sometimes they don’t. The methods that I employ haven’t worked well for a few months now. This will change. It always does. Anyway, USDOLLAR is still in the vicinity of longer term resistance. The zone extends to 12181, which is the December 2019 low and parallel resistance.
Since USDCAD is USDCAD, it had to test Friday’s high before reversing lower. In any case, there is no change to the view that a 5th wave lower is underway. I don’t have all of the measurements on the chart because I like to keep it clean but realize that wave 3 is exactly 161.8% of wave 1. If today was the 4th wave high, then wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.2184. This is in line with the 5/13 high at 1.2203. Bottom line, I’m looking towards 1.2200ish. There is a high volume level at 1.2459 that is proposed resistance now. Finally, an 8 hour volume reversal triggered today (see futures chart below, which extends back one year).
Gold is closing in on the noted level from the line that extends off of the 2020 and May highs and resistance since July near 1834. I’m ‘thinking’ pullback initially from the well-defined level but will be tracking for support beginning near 1800 since I’m of the mind that the broader trend is higher.
I have not been ‘in tune’ with USD moves for the better part of the last month. During periods of uncertainty, I find it helpful to go back to the basics. USDSEK is often a ‘tell’ for general USD trends and pivots. Here are several objective technical observations;
USDSEK is holding the 200 day midpoint (similar to the 200 day average)…this is bullish.
The decline from the 8/20 high is in 2 equal legs…this is characteristics of a corrective decline within a larger advance…bullish
Daily RSI registered ‘overbought’ readings at price highs over the last year and RSI readings at price lows have been above 30…this is also bullish.
In summary, the weight of evidence is USDSEK bullish and therefore generally USD bullish (notably against European FX). At least that’s where my mind is at the moment.