CADJPY traded to a 6 year high today (highest since December 2015). High 91.00s has been a precise pivot since June 2013 and RSI is in rare territory. The chart below shows instances since late 2014 when RSI has been as high as it is today (above 80). Each instances has been within days of an important price peak. I’m not willing to fade this until I see reversal evidence…but be ready!
Silver has broken above and established above the 25 line so that line is now proposed support near 22.78. The inverse head and shoulders objective is 24.87, which is also the September high. 23.97 is pullback resistance. From a bigger picture perspective, SLV made a weekly volume reversal at the low 2 weeks ago (see below). Finally, silver has turned up from a 8 month channel and the bottom year+ range and sentiment is downright brutal as evidenced by articles such as EXCLUSIVE Banks prepare to scrap LME gold and silver contracts, sources say
Today was important for copper as price reversed lower from well-defined trendline resistance. Simply, if copper is bearish then weakness will accelerate while price remains beneath today’s high. A break above would indicate an important behavior change and suggest that corrective action since May is complete and that another leg up within a longer term bull market is underway.
AUDUSD reversed lower from the noted .7360. I am looking lower as long as price is below today’s high. .7290 is possible support. If price breaks above trendline resistance (red line), then focus would shift to .7617.
AUDUSD sports a head and shoulders bottom since 9/20. Price is trading right at the neckline now and proposed support is about .7280 (median line). The h&s objective is .7460 but be aware of .7360 for resistance. This zone is defined by the 61.8% retrace of the drop from September, the trendline from May, and 2 equal legs up from the September low.
Silver is bullish. The rally from the low is impulsive. The question is whether or not the correction is complete. Either price pulls back to 21.90-22.10 or price breaks above the 75 line (parallel just above price) and the top side of that line then provides support. A zoomed in version and possible path is below.
I continue to lean towards the idea that the next GBPUSD dip is a buying opportunity. Of course, we need the dip! There is a lot in the way for possible resistance up to about 1.3670. The underside of the line off of the July and August lows is now (along with short term VWAP resistance…see 2 charts down), the year open is 1.3655, and the March and April lows are 1.3670. The short term wave count is shown below and 1.3530 remains initial support.
XLY is the consumer discretionary ETF. This two largest holdings are AMZN (22.9%) and TSLA (13.5%). In other words, this is an important ETF with some big names. Last week, both a 2 week volume reversal and 1 week volume reversal triggered. The 2 week signals are shown in the chart below. The 1 week signals are shown 2 charts down.
Silver turned up sharply today after dipping below the September 2020 low. Support is reinforced by channel support down here as well. Simply, the combination of well-defined support and extreme pessimism (numerous headlines include ‘plunge’) suggest that it’s time to turn bullish. I’m like the long side now. The first test is about 22.88.