Month: October 2021

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 10/28 – Euro vs. North America?

Remember the channel from the January high? EURUSD has confirmed a false break below the channel…which is bullish (low of the last 3 days is right at the channel line). Near term, I’m thinking 1.0700/30 puts up a fight. If it does, then watch for support near 1.0640. The next 3 charts show instances when EURUSD made a 5 day low and 20 day high on the same day. Today is just the 4th time that has happened since the euro’s inception. In the previous 3 instances, the ‘show of strength’ day (Wyckoff term) preceded large advances although not necessarily right away.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 10/27 – BTCUSD Warning Equities?

BTCUSD is off 13% since the top last week. If price drops under the short term lower channel line near 56830 then weakness will be considered impulsive and ‘waterfall’ weakness would be on the table. Watch for resistance near 61850. The weekly chart is shown below. This looks ‘toppy’ to me. Yes, ‘toppy’ is an official technical term. Former trendline support has provided resistance on the way up, a doji candle formed last week, and the rally failed after taking out the prior high. Seems bearish. Finally, is BTCUSD trying to tell equities something (see 2 charts down)

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 10/26 – USDCAD 4th Wave into BoC

No change to USDCAD but I’m re-posting the chart because BoC is tomorrow. I continues to favor the scenario in which the bounce from 10/21 is a 4th wave. Ideal resistance is 1.2470/90 (38.2% retrace of well-defined pivot since June).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 10/25 – Gold Breakout

Gold broke above trendline resistance and the 200 day average today. The top side of the trendline (blue) is now proposed support near 1790. Upside focus is the line off of the August 2020 and June high. That’s about 1840.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 10/24 – EURJPY Short Setup

EURJPY sports 5 waves down from the 10/20 high so watch for resistance near 132.79 (4th wave high). The 10/20 high is on the upper parallel from the fork that originates at the September low. Eventual proposed support is the lower parallel, which intersects with the September high at 130.75.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 10/21 – How Big a USD Bounce?

USDOLLAR turned up from corrective channel support. Again, my ‘view’ is that the buck has rolled over so I’ll be paying close attention to sentiment in the coming days. For example, strong USD forecasts would suggests that it’s time to short the USD. Price wise, pay attention to 12020s and 12060s for resistance.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 10/20 – Extreme Daily RSI in Several Yen Crosses

CADJPY RSI closed at 82.79 on Wednesday. CADJPY data on TradeStation only goes back to 2007 but readings this high since then have only occurred several times since then; in December 2017 and June 2007 s(see below)! Bottom line, a reading this high is rare and therefore at risk of a reversal. Price wise, 93.25-94.50 is a zone to pay attention for a resistance and a high (see 2 charts down).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 10/19 – USDCAD Bounce Time?

USDCAD has spent 4 days trading around the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the June low. Also, today’s long lower wick and 4 hour volume reversal (see below) suggest that a relief bounce could take hold. With resistance probably not until 1.2490s, I’m willing to trade the long side against today’s low.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 10/18 – USDJPY Nears Big Zone

USDJPY has nearly reached the noted zone so pay attention. Aside from channel resistance, the level just above the market is defined by the late 2017 and 2018 highs at 114.55/74. A pullback from the zone would ‘make sense’. If reversal evidence arises, then there may be an opportunity to play the short side although 113.21 is in line for support (see below).

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 10/14 – 6 Year High in CADJPY

CADJPY traded to a 6 year high today (highest since December 2015). High 91.00s has been a precise pivot since June 2013 and RSI is in rare territory. The chart below shows instances since late 2014 when RSI has been as high as it is today (above 80). Each instances has been within days of an important price peak. I’m not willing to fade this until I see reversal evidence…but be ready!