Market Update 4/12 – Key Spot in Copper

SPOT GOLD 4 HOUR

Gold continues to hold 1730 (give or take).  In fact, the 38.2% retrace of the rally from the low held as support today.  This is also the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart and a parallel within the channel from the August high.  I am constructive gold and specifically bullish as long as price holds above today’s low.

4/8 – Gold paused and then broke through 1730.  That level is now proposed support.  1785 remains a near term upside objective followed by 1830.  I’m constructive gold but 1730 needs to hold in order to maintain that view.

COPPER FUTURES DAILY

Copper is once again testing the critical trendline from the March 2020 low.  This line is reinforced by the 50 day average, which has been precise support since November.  I’m waiting for a break lower in order to turn bearish copper.

4/1 – Copper continues to coil.  Which way is Dr. Copper going to break?  I’m thinking lower (eventually) given the rejection from the underside of the LONG TERM trendline (see weekly chart below) but it’s a waiting game until the trendline from the March low breaks.

EURUSD DAILY

EURUSD continues to churn around 1.1915.  I’m thinking that price makes a run at 1.1950s, which is the upper parallel from a bearish fork and the 50 day average.  A top near there and pullback would make sense because the rally is unfolding in 5 waves (see the 4 hour chart below).

4/7 – EURUSD high today was 1.1915, which was resistance last August, September, and November (circled).  This is reason enough to wonder if a swing high is in place although I do think there are better ways to express USD upside.  Keep an eye on 1.1835 for possible support.  If strength persists, then 1.1950/90 is the next level to know for resistance.

EURUSD 4 HOUR

GBPUSD 4 HOUR

I continue to look towards 1.3566 in GBPUSD, but a bounce back to 1.3850 or so may be in order before weakness resumes.  Price held the 3/25 low today and turned up sharply.  Watch for support near 1.3706.

4/7 – Cable followed through on the prior day’s reversal.  Monday’s low at 1.3800 is proposed resistance.  1.3800 is also 2021 VWAP, which has been a pivot all year (see futures chart below).  Downside focus is the February low at 1.3566.

NZDUSD DAILY

Time for NZDUSD downside to resume?  Price has traded into channel resistance and the 20 day average continues to hold as resistance.  I favor the downside against .7070 with initial downside focus on .6900.