Month: April 2021

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/29 – EURJPY Top?

EURJPY closed right at 132.00 today. This is HUGE. The level is defined by the underside of the trendline from the 2012 low and the trendline from the 2008 high! If you look at a 4 hour chart, you’ll see a 4 hour reversal candle. This occurred during the active U.S. session so perhaps a top is in place? The big short trigger remains a break of the upward sloping trendline but if price drops in a clear 5 waves from today’s high then I’ll plot an entry. Stay tuned.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/28 – Short Term USDJPY Idea

USDJPY did indeed pull back from 109.00. My near term view is that the drop is a 4th wave within a 5 wave rally from the 4/23 low. Ideal is support is 108.52/55. This is the 38.2% retrace of proposed wave 3 and the 4/20 high.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/27 – EURJPY at Important Zone

EURJPY has reached the underside of the line off of the 2012 and 2016 lows. This is also the line that extends off of highs since January 2020. The line off of the 2008 and 2014 highs (magenta line) is just above the market…at about 132.00. 131.89 is also where the rally from the May low would equal 61.8% of the 2016-2018 rally. This is interesting because action since the 2014 high may be a triangle and alternate legs within triangles often relate by 61.8%. Bottom line, now to 132.00 is a zone for a top.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/22 – Pause in Precious Metals Rally

SLV has also run into 2021 VWAP. A pullback ‘makes sense’ with support near 23.60. The equivalent level for spot is 25.62. A big reason to hold a constructive longer term view on silver is the fact that VWAP from the March 2020 low has provided support on multiple occasions.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/21 – Watch EURJPY Up Here!

I’ve been tracking EURJPY for a top as it approached the underside of the trendline from the 2012 low since February. On Tuesday, price spiked higher and reversed yet just missed the trendline. I ‘want’ to short. A break of the trendline from the November low is needed in order to trigger.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/20 – Risk Reversing

AUDUSD reversed sharply lower today after coming within pips of the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the February high and early January high. Near term downside focus is .7620. Proposed resistance is .7750.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/19 – USD Dumps – What Now?

The sharp USD drop on Monday makes me neutral at best for now. I had wanted to see USDOLLAR hold the median line from the multiyear structure in order to stay constructive (see below). That said, DXY has reached VWAP from the January low and USDOLLAR has reached the 3/18 low. The 61.8% retrace for USDOLLAR is slightly lower at 11705. Keep an eye on these levels for possible support.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/15 – Key Support for the USD

USDCHF is into support and the level is loaded. The 38.2% retrace, 50 day average, March 2020 low, and November high span ..9180-.9210. I’m looking for a turn higher. Also, the decline from the top is impulsive so a corrective rally is expected. The trigger is above .9245

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update 4/14 – Key Level for the USD

I was wrong to think that the USDOLLAR pullback was complete last week but the long cited 11795 level has been reached. This is a decision point…plain and simple. The level is defined by the early February high and median line of the structure that originates at the 2017 high. The drop also channels in a corrective manner. Bottom line, price needs to turn up now in order to remain constructive on a swing basis.

Scandinavian Capital Markets

Market Update: April 13

NZDUSD failed to turn lower from the line that extends off of the February and 3/18 highs. The structure from the February high is now a Schiff fork. The upper parallel intersects with the well-defined .7100 level and 200 period average on the 4 hour chart. If NZDUSD is lower, then .7100 is the price to short.