November 19, 2020

Market Update: November 19

Assets prices were down in early U.S. trading as the USD rallied but everything reversed course when the magical U.S. session got underway (stocks up, metals up, USD down, etc.). I still like gold lower but a bit more strength may be in order to test resistance near 1876.
November 16, 2020

Market Update: November 16

Copper is at new highs and again testing channel resistance. Be aware of the potential for failure up here again. If strength persists then know that the 2017 high is at 3.2220. A push above there would put copper at its highest level since 2014!
November 16, 2020

Scandex Technical Weekly: 11/15/2020

USDCNH made a weekly J Spike last week (price based only indicator). The platform that I use to run these studies only includes USDCNH data since 2013 and this is the first bullish signal. There have been several bearish signals; at the 2018 and 2019 highs. A turn higher in USDCNH ‘fits’ with a turn lower in Chinese equities.
November 11, 2020

Market Update: November 11

NZDUSD has ripped into the confluence of long term downward sloping channel resistance and short term upward sloping channel resistance. I’m interested in the short side IF we see some reversal evidence over the next 2 days (rest of the week). A drop below the high volume level from RBNZ at .6862 would be an early sign of a reversal.
November 2, 2020

Market Update: November 2

USDOLLAR traded into the center line of the channel from the September low today and immediately pulled back. Proposed support is 12050 or so. The top of the channel intersects where the rally would consist of 2 equal legs at 12268 on 11/18. The 38.2% retrace of the decline from the March high is just above there at 12283 and the 200 day average is currently 12284 (see below). So, a slight pullback and then higher? It certainly ‘fits’ with general seasonality and election seasonality.
October 23, 2020

Scandex Technical Weekly: 10/23/2020

2011-2014 trendline support in DXY held in September. Focus is higher as long as price is above that level. 96-97 is a general zone to look towards. This zone includes the 200 week average and center line of the channel from the 2011 low.
October 21, 2020

Market Update: October 21

There is no change to DXY comments/opinion but I wanted to reproduce this chart because the index is nearing critical support at 92.17/30. The level is defined by long term trendline support (see longer term chart below), daily reversal support, and 2 legs down from the 9/25 high. This needs to hold if the range from late July is going to resolve to the upside.
October 13, 2020

Market Update: October 13

Gold has turned down from the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, short term trendline, and 2011 high. Notice the action around the 2011 high over the last few months…gold remembers! Focus remains lower. 1760 appears critical for longer term support. This is the May high, near the 200 day average, and is a parallel that crosses highs and lows since August 2019.
October 13, 2020

Market Update: October 12

USDCNH has held a massive level defined by resistance in October 2017 and support from February-April 2019. Price has also turned up from the bottom of a steep bearish channel. The top of the channel is about 6.81. Strength above would be viewed as constructive. Also, the chart below shows USDCNH (in red) and DXY (in black) over the last 3 years. Every important turn was marked by non-confirmation between USDCNH and DXY. A bullish non-confirmation is in place as long as DXY is above its September low. Finally, DXY seasonal tendencies turn up now (5 year look back) and after this week (10, 20, and 30 year look backs).