British Pound futures pulled back to VWAPs off of the June high and low. The level is also the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart (spot is below) and more or less the breakout level from the short term head and shoulders bottom. I like GBPUSD higher as long as price is above today’s low. Near term support and resistance levels are 1.2510 and 1.2618.
I remain broadly constructive GBPUSD but price could pull back from the current level, which is defined by 2020 VWAP (see 2 charts down). I’m showing 2 technical interpretations. An Elliott interpretation is that 5 waves up are complete or nearly so and that price should pull back towards the area of the prior 4th wave.
The EURUSD drop from 6/10 to 6/19 retraced exactly 38.2% of the rally from 5/7. 4th waves often retrace 38.2% of 3rd waves. The implication is that EURUSD is headed higher in a 5th wave. A possible target is where wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.1460. The high volume level at 1.1261 is a good spot for support (the year open is 1.1260 by the way). Be aware of the current ownership profile however (see below). Speculators are the most long since the 2017 high.
Trading the last few days in indices and FX is best described as a summer lull. That said, SPX focus remains on 2888. Price has respected the short term median line and 25 line the last few days. Expect acceleration lower in the median line breaks. I have no opinion on whether or not the 25 line continues to act as resistance. If it does not then the upper parallel should be watched for resistance near 3120.
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ES traded around noted resistance last week before finally turning down on Friday. Focus is towards 2777.25 and 2849. This the 38.2% retrace of the rally from March and 2 equal legs down. Lows from August and October reinforce the levels.
USDOLLAR focus remains towards 12428. In fact, 2 equal legs up from the low would be 12418. The upper parallel of the Schiff fork and short term bullish channel intersect 12418/28 on Thursday/Friday. The level is also marked by the 4/30 low.
I’m thinking that ES carries into 3110/37 before encountering stronger resistance for another leg lower. The zone is defined by the 61.8% retrace and underside of the line that crosses pivots (high and lows) since 2018 (red line).
My view is that the USDOLLAR bounce is counter trend but it should carry higher before rolling over. The upper parallel of the Schiff fork is a candidate for resistance along with the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 5/18 at 12428. Watch for support from 12304 (more or less now).