A bullish golden cross (50-period SMA crossing above the 200-period SMA) has formed on the AUD/USD daily chart. The Aussie has been supported by upbeat Chinese and Australian data, while the US dollar lost some of its safe haven appeal amid positive US and European economic data.
USDOLLAR traded 12383 today, not quite reaching the proposed resistance zone. However, that may be the end of the counter trend bounce. Price reversed right at the upper parallel from a Schiff fork, the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, and at a level that has been support and resistance since May 2019 (red line). As long as today’s high is in place, risk is lower in my opinion.
Trading the last few days in indices and FX is best described as a summer lull. That said, SPX focus remains on 2888. Price has respected the short term median line and 25 line the last few days. Expect acceleration lower in the median line breaks. I have no opinion on whether or not the 25 line continues to act as resistance. If it does not then the upper parallel should be watched for resistance near 3120.
I’m looking at short term wave counts today in USD indices and the 3 cleanest USD pairs from a short term perspective. USDOLLAR focus is still on 12418/28. A flat pattern unfolded from the 6/15 high. The rally from 6/23 is impulsive so focus is on buying support, probably in the 12289-12304 zone.
The Australian dollar and the S&P/ASX 200 stock index were shaken after White House trade adviser and outspoken China critic Peter Navarro said the trade deal between Washington and Beijing was "over".
After Friday’s action, the extent of today’s USD drop was a surprise. Additional EURUSD downside is possible though if price reverses right now, which is the 200 hour average, upper parallel of the short term bearish fork, 75 line within the channel from the March low, and VWAP from the June high (see below). Bottom line, the current level is important so let’s see what happens here before determining strategy.
Today was extremely quiet and as a result I don’t have much to update. Australian employment is tonight however so it’s worth another look at AUDUSD. If the flat interpretation is correct, then a lower high is in place at .6977 (and price shouldn’t move much above .6900). The ‘cleanest’ downside level is .6685-.6700. This has been a major level since July (almost a year), 2 equal legs down, and the 200 period midpoint on the 4 hour chart (magenta line).
USDOLLAR focus remains towards 12428. In fact, 2 equal legs up from the low would be 12418. The upper parallel of the Schiff fork and short term bullish channel intersect 12418/28 on Thursday/Friday. The level is also marked by the 4/30 low.