TLT WEEKLY

Market Update 5/16 – Weekly Bond Market Reversal

TLT completed a 2 week high volume reversal last week. Over the last 10 years, this signal has occurred right at or very close to a major turn. Also, a 1 week volume reversal triggered last week (see below). This is just the second 1 week bullish reversal since the inception of the ETF. The other one marked the 2007 low.

BTCUSD DAILY

Market Update 5/12 – Bitcoin Calling the Shots

BTCUSD reversed off of the VWAP and the median line today! This is huge and sets a line in the sand for BTCUSD and probably crypto and ‘risk’ in general (see the Nasdaq composite and BTCUSD overlay below). IF a screaming rally is going to unfold then it’s from this level. The former low at 32950 is now resistance. Here’s the thing though…IF BTCUSD breaks below today’s low then we’re in crash territory until the lower parallel near 14000.

EURAUD 4 HOUR

Market Update 5/10 – Tracking EUR / Commodity FX Setups

EURAUD sports a 2 month bottoming pattern (similar to the 2 month topping process in AUDJPY). Price is nearing the 3/15 high at 1.5329 which could produce a reaction lower. ‘Ideal’ support for a long entry is 1.4940s, which includes former resistance and the top side of the line off of the 3/15 and 4/25 highs.

DIA DAILY

Market Update 5/9 – Resistance in Bond Yields?

DIA (Dow ETF) levels are extremely well-defined. A massive top is completed and the biggest level on this chart is 297.50 (or so). A drop to that level would represent a 20% drop from the all-time high. In the grand scheme of things, that’s fairly normal. Possible trading levels before then include 313.50 (VWAP from the March 2020 low) and 332.70 for resistance (former support). The full view of the structure from the 2020 low is shown below.

DJI WEEKLY

Market Update 5/5 – The Reversal Reverses

Today’s Dow move is important because price plummeted from the center line of the Schiff fork that originates at the 2009 low. In simpler terms, this line has been key support and/or resistance for years (note the highlighted areas…zoomed in chart is below). Consider the market in dangerous territory while price is beneath this center line.

SPX DAILY

Market Update 5/3 – Upside SPX Levels of Note

SPX held up after yesterday’s reversal. There are 2 big levels to note for possible resistance…4250 and 4360/90. The latter level seems like a stretch in the near term but FOMC is tomorrow and sentiment is wildly bearish, which provides plenty of fuel for a violent squeeze. Bottom line, I’m thinking higher following yesterday’s reversal, especially after futures held the large volume level during Tuesday’s trade (see below).