USDJPY reversed sharply last week and high was 115.52! Near term downside focus is 112.20s and 114.50s sticks out as possible resistance. This is the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the high along with the 25 line of a short term fork. The 75 line provided support (so far) so resistance at the 25 line would make sense.
***This is the last post until next week. The Thanksgiving holiday is coming at the right time for me…I’ve been ‘out of tune’ with markets for the last 2 months and need a breather. Happy Thanksgiving!***
Remember the gold ‘breakout’ above the critical 1834. It was short lived and the yellow metal has been slammed lower the last few days. Focus is squarely on the slope confluence (blue lines) near 1769. That level needs to provide support in order to hold a constructive view.
Is this the ‘Powell top’? XLK (tech ETF) made a daily volume reversal today and Nasdaq futures (see below) topped a few ticks under channel resistance. This channel was resistance for the September top. From a very big picture perspective, I’ll note that the market cap of the 5 largest companies as a percentage of the S&P 500 is extreme (see 2 charts down). The 5 largest companies are all tech companies by the way. In other words, it’s a highly concentrated market. Historically, this is unsustainable.
The TRY crisis has led to USDTRY near (or at…I’ll explain) the top of a decade + channel. The channel top when using intraday highs/lows is about 11.61. When using daily closing prices, USDTRY is at the line now. An interesting juncture and one that wouldn’t be surprising as resistance. That’s as bold as I’ll get regarding USDTRY comments right now.
EURUSD low today was 1.1263. How about that trendline! I can’t think of a better technical combination, a Fibonacci level and long term well-defined trendline, to mark an important turning point. I am bullish against the low. The first hurdle on the upside is the weekly opening price at 1.1446 followed by former support at 1.1525. Support should be 1.1290-1.1300.
BTCUSD has followed through on its 11/10 reversal. I love this setup. Price has broken the median line, which is now proposed resistance along with the 11/12 low at 62295. Initial downside focus is channel support (blue line) in the 52000s. A longer term view is below.
DXY DAILY DXY is ticks from the median line of the structure that originates at the January low. If I were smarter then I would have stayed bullish the buck as long as price stayed within the structure. Lesson learned! That said, be aware of 95.70s for possible resistance. That’s the median line and June 2020 low….
GBPUSD held VWAP from the March 2020 low on Friday. As noted last week, lower parallel support is slightly lower near 1.3320 (see below) though. If the rally from last week’s low extends into a small 5 wave advance then I’ll want to but a small dip.
The cleanest setup from my vantage point at the moment is in gold. Price has broken out (remember 1834 was possible resistance…it didn’t do anything so it’s support) and 1834 is proposed support. Former resistance is reinforced by the top side of the line off of the 2020 and May highs along with the center line of the short term bullish channel (which was formerly resistance). Upside focus is the May high at 1916.