USDOLLAR found resistance at the cited level (recovery high was 12536) and broke down today. Individual USD crosses nailed their supports as well (see levels noted below from last week). My wave count interpretation is that weakness from the 5/18 high is either a 3rd or C wave so downside potential is significant in the coming weeks and months.
Nasdaq futures and QQQ (weekly QQQ is below) covered their closes from 2/21 on Wednesday and closed beneath those levels today. Mistrust of strength has been misguided but the gap fill and down day today at least presents a bearish risk point (Wednesday’s high).
It ‘feels’ like the USD is on the verge of breaking down. That said, USDOLLAR is back into important support (line off of 2011 and 2014 lows and a major horizontal level…see weekly chart below). Support is support until broken so respect bounce potential with resistance near 12520.
Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele, our Chief Technical Analyst.
Resistance came in slightly higher than thought for GBPUSD but the idea remains the same. Proposed support for long entry is 1.2160/90s. The bottom of the zone is the 61.8% retrace of this week’s rally and 4/6 low. The top of the zone is VWAP from this week’s low (see hourly futures chart 2 charts down). Additional bullish evidence includes a daily volume reversal yesterday (see daily futures chart below). The last daily volume reversal was in January 2017, which was an important low. Also, don’t forget seasonal tendencies are now bullish. Elliott structure suggests that the rally from this week’s low is either a C wave or 3rd wave, so upside potential is significant.
Gold is pulling back to the top side of former triangle resistance. If gold is bullish, then suppport should be 1716/22. I’m looking to buy in that zone for resumption of upside. If the noted zone fails to hold, then gold would turn extremely bearish because the recent breakout would be considered a completed terminal thrust from a triangle.
The downside remains favored in AUDUSD towards the .6250s. The former 4th wave low is .6254 and VWAP from the March low is currently .6249. This is also the lower parallel of the bearish fork from the high. If AUDUSD is bearish then resistance should be about .6460, which is the underside of the line off of the 4/21 and 5/6 lows and VWAP from the April high. Seasonal tendencies are bearish for the next few weeks (see below).
The chart of spot gold is cleaner show I’m showing it instead of futures. Price broke out of the triangle described yesterday. That’s bullish! The top side of the former triangle line should be support now near 1720/22 (former highs at 1722).
I like to say ‘resistance is resistance until it’s broken’. Gold has been consolidating in a triangle since the April high and is testing the triangle resistance. Triangles tend to resolve in the direction of the previous trend…in this case higher (triangles can occur at highs as consolidation tops…the key is to wait for the break). At the current juncture, I lean bullish. The triangle objective is 1911, which is just under the all-time high of 1923.70. Spot gold (see below) is just under its triangle resistance line and the equivalent objective is 1834.