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June 5, 2020
QQQ traded to an all-time high on Wednesday and at today’s open before ending the day down slightly. It’s interesting that the Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq futures have not traded all-time highs yet. S&Ps have not either. I’m not sure if this non-confirmation means anything. Time will tell. 223.94 is still seen as an important level (call it the ‘breakage’ point) but weakness under the lower diagonal line (lower magenta line) near 230 would be enough for me to suggest that the uptrend has broken.
June 4, 2020
SPX traded to 3130.94 today. The red line was reached but not the 78.6% retrace. On SPY however today’s high was 313.22, which is the exact 78.6% retrace. Also, a 30 minute volume reversal triggered on SPY (see chart below). This is the 4th such bearish reversal since the March low. The previous 3 were at least near term highs. I’m thinking lower from here.
June 3, 2020
Gold is in its 8th week of sideways trade but that may be about to end. The drop from yesterday’s high is the 5th leg within the triangle consolidation. A level to note for support is 1704.40, which is 61.8% of the alternating leg. My ‘bias’ is that gold finds support there and then breaks out to the topside. Be nimble (always) though because a drop beneath 1684 would indicate that the sideways trade is a consolidation top.
June 2, 2020
GBPUSD has broken out and near term focus is on the median ine near 1.2800 with significant longer term upside potential. Support should now be 1.2420s or so, which is the top side of the line crosses recent highs.
June 1, 2020
DXY is breaking down but pay attention to 97.69 for possible support. This is the November 2018 high and center line of the channel from the March high. If price bounces from there then resistance is likely in the 98.50-99.00 zone.
May 29, 2020
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May 29, 2020
Be aware of 3136 in SPX as a possible pivot. The level is defined by the 78.6% retrace of the decline,March high, and the line that crosses highs in 2018 and 2019. This line was support in December. Price has responded to Fibonacci retracements (23.6%, 38.2%, and 61.8%) during the advance which increases confidence that ‘something’ happens at the next Fibonacci retracement.
May 28, 2020
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May 28, 2020
GBPUSD erased most of yesterday’s rally but I remain constructive. In fact, price found support near the short term trendline that originates at the 5/18 low. I want to see strength above 1.2300 (blue line) before committing capital to the upside again though. In general, this level has been support and resistance for a little over a month.