Today’s ES break confirms the rally from the March low as a wedge. The implication is that the March low will eventually be re-tested. Near term, I’d still watch for a bounce from 2600/30. Proposed resistance is now the underside of the broken wedge line at 2808.
Remember the 4 hour volume reversal on 4/9? ES failed to follow through on that reversal but price is back to that level. 2923/48 wasn’t reached but the rally from the March low consist of 2 equal waves…exactly. So, there is reason to ‘think’ that a countertrend rally is complete. Pay attention to 2770, which is the trendline from the low and VWAP from the February high. A break below there would also leave the rally from March as a bearish wedge, which would suggest an eventual re-test of the low. The next immediate spot to watch then would be 2600/30 (VWAP from the low and recent resistance and support).
Gold reversed from massive resistance last week (long term parallel is shown on the weekly chart below). I am bearish…at least near term. If the decline from last week’s high unfolds in 5 waves, then I’d be confidently bearish against the high and look to short a rally. For now, just know that levels to watch are 1672.50 for support (keep in mind that this is futures and not spot) and 1724.20 for resistance.