Market Update 5/6 – USDOLLAR NFP Reversal Warning
A print under 11745 in USDOLLAR will complete 3 waves down from the 5/3 high and give way to another leg up…at least that’s what I’m thinking. Reminder, NFP is tomorrow!
Market Update 5/4 – NZDUSD Tags Key Level
Kiwi has traded in a textbook fashion over the last week or so. Resistance at the channel high…hard break of the center line…center line acting as resistance…and finally the lower channel line holding.
Market Update 5/3 – USDJPY Channel Still Nailing Turns
DXY turned sharply higher on Friday but gave back a good portion of those gains today. The rally counts in 5 waves (impulsive) which suggests at least one more leg up while price remains above Friday’s high. 90.79 is proposed support if price slips a bit lower.
Market Update 5/2 – Monthly TLT Buy Signal
TLT completed a 2 bar monthly volume reversal in April. This is the 3rd bullish monthly signal ever. The first 2 (blue bars) nailed lows in August 2003 and July 2007.
Market Update 4/29 – EURJPY Top?
EURJPY closed right at 132.00 today. This is HUGE. The level is defined by the underside of the trendline from the 2012 low and the trendline from the 2008 high! If you look at a 4 hour chart, you’ll see a 4 hour reversal candle. This occurred during the active U.S. session so perhaps a top is in place? The big short trigger remains a break of the upward sloping trendline but if price drops in a clear 5 waves from today’s high then I’ll plot an entry. Stay tuned.
Market Update 4/28 – Short Term USDJPY Idea
USDJPY did indeed pull back from 109.00. My near term view is that the drop is a 4th wave within a 5 wave rally from the 4/23 low. Ideal is support is 108.52/55. This is the 38.2% retrace of proposed wave 3 and the 4/20 high.
Market Update 4/27 – EURJPY at Important Zone
EURJPY has reached the underside of the line off of the 2012 and 2016 lows. This is also the line that extends off of highs since January 2020. The line off of the 2008 and 2014 highs (magenta line) is just above the market…at about 132.00. 131.89 is also where the rally from the May low would equal 61.8% of the 2016-2018 rally. This is interesting because action since the 2014 high may be a triangle and alternate legs within triangles often relate by 61.8%. Bottom line, now to 132.00 is a zone for a top.
Market Update 4/22 – Pause in Precious Metals Rally
SLV has also run into 2021 VWAP. A pullback ‘makes sense’ with support near 23.60. The equivalent level for spot is 25.62. A big reason to hold a constructive longer term view on silver is the fact that VWAP from the March 2020 low has provided support on multiple occasions.
Market Update 4/21 – Watch EURJPY Up Here!
I’ve been tracking EURJPY for a top as it approached the underside of the trendline from the 2012 low since February. On Tuesday, price spiked higher and reversed yet just missed the trendline. I ‘want’ to short. A break of the trendline from the November low is needed in order to trigger.