Plain and simple, USDCHF broke out today. Recent resistance is now proposed support at .9242. Near term upside focus is .9367. This is where the rally from the June low would consist of 2 equal legs. Trendline resistance from the April 2019 high and the center line of the channel that originates at the January low intersect near that price.
USDJPY is testing a key spot defined by the line off of the April and August lows and the 8/16 low. Recall the bearish setup in GBPJPY (see yesterday’s post) but I’ll note the possibility of a bounce in USDJPY from the current level given the noted level and 4 hour volume reversal in futures (see below…remember that futures are quoted JPYUSD so the chart is ‘flipped’).
Cable put in a BIG reversal today. I’m not sure what’s going on from a pattern perspective but today’s reversal was accompanied by high volume. The chart below shows high volume (1 day) reversals in futures. Those are some good signals! Also, note that 2021 VWAP was resistance (2 charts down). ‘Levels wise’, price might bounce from near 1.3775. Watch for resistance near 1.3445.
The EURUSD drop did extend into 5 waves and a corrective bounce is underway towards 1.1850/56 (former 4th wave high and 61.8% retrace). Today’s rally is probably most of wave A. As such, a small pullback (1.1790 support) followed by another leg up should complete the corrective advance and give way to additional weakness.
USDTRY put in a key reversal from noted resistance. The combination of technical levels and pattern (possible rounding top) makes for an amazing setup. I am bearish against today’s high.
ECB is Thursday. I don’t make trading decisions based on my ‘fundamental’ analysis but I do like to know when important news events are going to be released. Not much has changed regarding the near term technical picture for EURUSD. Pay attention to parallels within the near term EURUSD bullish fork. 1.1780s and 1.1870s are proposed support and resistance. I favor shorting strength into the latter level and targeting 1.1750s (61.8% retrace).
USDJPY has been consolidating since late March. This consolidation is taking place following a break above multiyear trendline resistance. The implication is that another leg up will take place. General long term upside focus is the LONG TERM trendline (magenta line) near 117.50. Near term, price is testing short term trendline resistance (see below). A break above would warrant a long position.
AUDUSD has traded into the noted neckline and short term channel resistance (not shown) so I’m on the lookout for a pullback. RBA is tonight so be aware of a possible spike to test the line off of the May and June highs near .7480. Proposed supports now are .7380 and .7290.
AUDUSD is closing in on the well-defined .7415. Interestingly, this is the September 2020 high. It’s also support from July and resistance from August. I’ll be on the look for a turn down between .7415 and .7050 (short term channel and bigger picture neckline…see below for a zoomed in chart).