NQ is nearing the trendline from the November low. This is also the center line of the channel from the September low (the upper parallel was resistance so it would be ‘natural’ for price to react to the center line) and the 38.2% retrace of the rally from the May low (14641.50). Bottom line, this is an important test for NQ and a break below would indicate an important behavior change.
So much for the pullback. That said, I hate chasing USDJPY up here (despite being a bull)! The 75 line of the channel from the 2020 low is just above the market. This was resistance in March and July and I’m watching for resistance again. If price does start to pull back, then watch for support between 110.45 and 110.80 (see below). Also, there was a 4 hour volume reversal today. The futures chart below show all the reversals with equivalent volume for the last 3 years (remember that these are charts of JPY/USD so the chart is inverted).
I’m bigger picture bullish USDJPY but this is a good spot for a slight pullback. Price is testing 111.00, which is daily reversal resistance and the March high. This is also the center line from the channel that originates at the April low. Proposed support is 110.40s and then 109.90s.
9/23 – USDJPY has broken out. If the breakout is ‘for real’, then 110.00 should provide support. A measured objective for the triangle is the 161.8% expansion of the widest part of the triangle, which is wave B. That calculation yields 114.21. However, the extreme coil in USDJPY suggests that a more aggressive target is appropriate…I’m thinking a 118 handle (see below).
USDJPY has broken out. If the breakout is ‘for real’, then 110.00 should provide support. A measured objective for the triangle is the 161.8% expansion of the widest part of the triangle, which is wave B. That calculation yields 114.21. However, the extreme coil in USDJPY suggests that a more aggressive target is appropriate.
Is USDJPY about to explode higher from a 6 month triangle? Watch for support near 109.37. Within the range, 111.00 is still possible resistance but that’s missing the bigger picture. USDJPY is the most ‘coiled’ since August 2014…right before price went on a 2000 pip run in 4 months. This observation is based on weekly Bollinger Band width (see below). Don’t forget that price is trading above multiyear trendline resistance as well. I’m on breakout alert.
In my view, USDOLLAR has broken out and is headed to 12130/60 (the next decision point). IF price pulls back (not or later), then the parallel that has been support/resistance since June 2020 (magenta line) is proposed support along with the 50 day average at 11940. That could happen on Wednesday with FOMC, at a later date, or not at all! Bottom line, 11940 is proposed support and I’m looking towards 12130/60.
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SPX DAILY SPX broke the channel so the next downside level to pay attention to is the full extension of the width of the channel. That line intersects about 4220 towards the end of the week. The underside of the channel is proposed resistance now near 4395-4400. 9/15 – My near term SPX focus is on the channel […]
Plain and simple, USDCHF broke out today. Recent resistance is now proposed support at .9242. Near term upside focus is .9367. This is where the rally from the June low would consist of 2 equal legs. Trendline resistance from the April 2019 high and the center line of the channel that originates at the January low intersect near that price.
USDJPY is testing a key spot defined by the line off of the April and August lows and the 8/16 low. Recall the bearish setup in GBPJPY (see yesterday’s post) but I’ll note the possibility of a bounce in USDJPY from the current level given the noted level and 4 hour volume reversal in futures (see below…remember that futures are quoted JPYUSD so the chart is ‘flipped’).