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September 16, 2021

Market Update 9/15 – Big Test in USDJPY

USDJPY is testing a key spot defined by the line off of the April and August lows and the 8/16 low. Recall the bearish setup in GBPJPY (see yesterday’s post) but I’ll note the possibility of a bounce in USDJPY from the current level given the noted level and 4 hour volume reversal in futures (see below…remember that futures are quoted JPYUSD so the chart is ‘flipped’).
September 15, 2021

Market Update 9/14 – Bearish British Pound Setup

Cable put in a BIG reversal today. I’m not sure what’s going on from a pattern perspective but today’s reversal was accompanied by high volume. The chart below shows high volume (1 day) reversals in futures. Those are some good signals! Also, note that 2021 VWAP was resistance (2 charts down). ‘Levels wise’, price might bounce from near 1.3775. Watch for resistance near 1.3445.
September 14, 2021

Market Update 9/13 – Well-Defined EURUSD Trading Levels

The EURUSD drop did extend into 5 waves and a corrective bounce is underway towards 1.1850/56 (former 4th wave high and 61.8% retrace). Today’s rally is probably most of wave A. As such, a small pullback (1.1790 support) followed by another leg up should complete the corrective advance and give way to additional weakness.
September 10, 2021

Market Update 9/9 – Turkish Lira Setup

USDTRY put in a key reversal from noted resistance. The combination of technical levels and pattern (possible rounding top) makes for an amazing setup. I am bearish against today’s high.
September 9, 2021

Market Update 9/8 – Well-Defined Short Term USD Patterns

ECB is Thursday. I don’t make trading decisions based on my ‘fundamental’ analysis but I do like to know when important news events are going to be released. Not much has changed regarding the near term technical picture for EURUSD. Pay attention to parallels within the near term EURUSD bullish fork. 1.1780s and 1.1870s are proposed support and resistance. I favor shorting strength into the latter level and targeting 1.1750s (61.8% retrace).
September 8, 2021

Market Update 9/7 – USD Comeback

USDJPY has been consolidating since late March. This consolidation is taking place following a break above multiyear trendline resistance. The implication is that another leg up will take place. General long term upside focus is the LONG TERM trendline (magenta line) near 117.50. Near term, price is testing short term trendline resistance (see below). A break above would warrant a long position.
September 7, 2021

Market Update 9/6 – AUD Crosses into Big Levels Before RBA

AUDUSD has traded into the noted neckline and short term channel resistance (not shown) so I’m on the lookout for a pullback. RBA is tonight so be aware of a possible spike to test the line off of the May and June highs near .7480. Proposed supports now are .7380 and .7290.
September 3, 2021

Market Update 9/2 – AUDUSD and NZDUSD into Big Levels

AUDUSD is closing in on the well-defined .7415. Interestingly, this is the September 2020 high. It’s also support from July and resistance from August. I’ll be on the look for a turn down between .7415 and .7050 (short term channel and bigger picture neckline…see below for a zoomed in chart).
September 1, 2021

Market Update 8/31 – Pivot Low in the USD?

USDOLLAR spiked lower on the last day of the month but recovered to finish the day virtually unchanged. Price is RIGHT at 11950. In fact, today’s low was one tick above the April high (former resistance is now support) and just above the 50 day average too. My view is that the USD is still in an uptrend. The question is whether or not the dip within the uptrend is complete. Today’s action (long lower wick into a well-defined level) is a good way to make the next pivot low. Also, 4 hour RSI continues to bottom above 30 (see below). Remember, this is characteristic of a ‘bullish RSI profile’.
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