GBPUSD continues to oscillate around the critical 1.3500. A gap higher on perceived positive Brexit news was followed by weakness throughout the day…a classic ‘sell the news’ dynamic. 1.3500/25 remains proposed resistance. The top of this zone is a high volume level. Near term focus remains towards 1.3100ish. The level is defined by trendlines and is just under the 12/11 low.
“Not a creature was stirring, not even a mouse.” That famous prose from The Night Before Christmas also applies to the FX market. EURUSD is likely waiting for ECB on Thursday so Wednesday might be another snoozer. In any case, price is sitting on the center line from the channel off of the November low. Price has bounced from this line the last two days so a break would indicate a near term behavior change. If that happens, then initial downside focus is 1.2040 and the lower parallel, which is about 1.1985 on Wednesday.
Interestingly, a daily volume reversal triggered on Friday from a 2 year high in EURUSD. There have only been 4 instances of this happening since inception of the euro (see chart below). If a top is in place at Friday’s high, then impulsive weakness likely extends towards 1.2040 before a bounce. That bounce would present the opportunity to short.
There is a massive parallel in the Dow at about 30900 that is worth noting. The line crosses the 2007 and 2018 highs and high from early this year. The line equidistant from the median line (concept symmetry) was support in March. These parallels are based on the line that connects the 1932 and 1982 lows (see monthly chart below).
S&P 500 futures continues to stairstep lower. I am looking lower. Price ideally stays under 3583. Initial focus is 3456.75 with 3506.50 as a possible bounce spot. On the sentiment front, hedge funds are all in and short interest is at an all-time low (see charts below).
Bitcoin! Heads up because ‘digital gold’ is quickly approaching its all time high of 19666. Just under this level is a parallel that crosses major levels (mostly from 2015 to 2017). BTCUSD is a long term bull but I’m of the mind that we see a strong reaction from the parallel/all time high.
Copper is at new highs and again testing channel resistance. Be aware of the potential for failure up here again. If strength persists then know that the 2017 high is at 3.2220. A push above there would put copper at its highest level since 2014!
USDCNH made a weekly J Spike last week (price based only indicator). The platform that I use to run these studies only includes USDCNH data since 2013 and this is the first bullish signal. There have been several bearish signals; at the 2018 and 2019 highs. A turn higher in USDCNH ‘fits’ with a turn lower in Chinese equities.
It was relatively quiet today but bullish evidence continues to mount for the USD. USDCAD, for example, followed through on its reversal from a 13 month low. The rally is impulsive (5 waves), which suggests that an weakness should prove corrective and give way to additional strength. Proposed support is 1.3025/50.