USDJPY continues to rip higher but price has reached an interesting level. The level in question is the line that extends off of the 2018 and 2020 highs. Seasonal tendencies also top this week. This trendline/seasonal combination makes for a great opportunity to fade the move but we need price to suggest that some sort of a top is in place. An intraday volume reversal for example would suffice.
EURUSD may be working on a 3 wave rally from the 3/9 low. Proposed support for wave B is just under 1.1900…1.1887/99 is daily reversal support, the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the low, and 2 equal legs down from the 3/11 high. If this interpretation is correct, then price will rally into 1.2050/90 (month open is 1.2070 as well).
USDJPY nailed resistance and reversed (high today was 109.23). Simply, I am looking lower until roughly 107.00 (the next decision point?). Proposed resistance is now 108.80ish.
USDJPY is trading just above the July 2020 high and 61.8% retrace of the decline from the March 2020 high. A huge test looms near 109.20, which is the confluence of trendline resistance from the 2015 high and the bullish fork that originates at the November low. The median line from that fork is now possible support near 106.80. A close up view is below.
A well-defined base has formed in USDOLLAR since mid-February. Zooming into price action since the 2/25 low reveals an impulsive advance followed by a drop and today’s bounce. I’m of the mind that the drop and bounce compose waves A and B of a 3 wave pullback. Ideal support for the end of the pullback is 11634/51.
1.2000ish remains a possible bounce level for EURUSD but I’d keep an eye on 1.2090-1.2100 for resistance now too. The level is defined by VWAPs from the November and February lows. These VWAPs were previously support. Now broken, watch the lines for resistance.
TLT has been tanking but is nearing a possible pivot from the center line of the channel from the March high. Daily RSI is 25.5. Magenta dots on the chart below show when RSI has been 25.5 or lower. Also, the 2016 is 143.36. This is an extremely important chart given the ‘inflation trade’ narrative. A bounce in TLT would indicate a pause/pullback in the in the nearly year long ‘inflation trade’.
DXY tanked on Friday but price continues to trade within the short term bullish fork. Price ended Friday right at the 25 line so an early week bounce is possible. 91.30 is possible resistance now. Ultimately, proposed support is 90.50.
EURUSD has reached the 1.1960s, which is marked by the top side of the 2008-2014 line and center line of the channel from the March low. It’s important! I’m ‘thinking’ some consolidation / bounce here before the level gives way. Recall that the rally from March is in 5 waves so a move back to the former 4th wave low at 1.1603 is suggested (as per wave guidelines…see the 4 hour chart below). Proposed resistance is now 1.2000/25. The top of this zone is the center line of the Schiff fork from the high (red line on the hourly chart…2 charts down). That line has been support/resistance for the last week.