Copper reached the noted 61.8% retrace at 3.6130 on Friday and reversed lower. The level is also reinforced by the upper parallel of the channel from the March low. Let’s see how action develops following Friday’s reversal but this is a great spot for a more important pivot. I’m also wondering if copper is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ regarding other assets (USD, stocks, BTCUSD, etc.).
GBPUSD is following through on Friday’s reversal. As noted yesterday, this bounce presents a short opportunity. Ideal resistance is about 1.3440 (12/1 and 12/2 highs and underside of the median line). Initial downside focus is the line off of the September and November lows near 1.3030.
Interestingly, a daily volume reversal triggered on Friday from a 2 year high in EURUSD. There have only been 4 instances of this happening since inception of the euro (see chart below). If a top is in place at Friday’s high, then impulsive weakness likely extends towards 1.2040 before a bounce. That bounce would present the opportunity to short.
Gold is one of the only things I’ve gotten right recently. Watch for resistance and a reaction near 1849. If price pulls back from there then I’d keep 1800 in mind for support and a higher low against the 11/30 low.
Gold tagged proposed resistance on Friday and dumped today…beautiful. Price is quickly approaching the long held support near 1780. This level is an important parallel and the lower channel line from the bearish channel off of the August high. I’ll be paying close attention to 1780 for reversal evidence.
Assets prices were down in early U.S. trading as the USD rallied but everything reversed course when the magical U.S. session got underway (stocks up, metals up, USD down, etc.). I still like gold lower but a bit more strength may be in order to test resistance near 1876.
Copper is at new highs and again testing channel resistance. Be aware of the potential for failure up here again. If strength persists then know that the 2017 high is at 3.2220. A push above there would put copper at its highest level since 2014!
USDCNH made a weekly J Spike last week (price based only indicator). The platform that I use to run these studies only includes USDCNH data since 2013 and this is the first bullish signal. There have been several bearish signals; at the 2018 and 2019 highs. A turn higher in USDCNH ‘fits’ with a turn lower in Chinese equities.
NZDUSD has ripped into the confluence of long term downward sloping channel resistance and short term upward sloping channel resistance. I’m interested in the short side IF we see some reversal evidence over the next 2 days (rest of the week). A drop below the high volume level from RBNZ at .6862 would be an early sign of a reversal.