Assets prices were down in early U.S. trading as the USD rallied but everything reversed course when the magical U.S. session got underway (stocks up, metals up, USD down, etc.). I still like gold lower but a bit more strength may be in order to test resistance near 1876.
11/18 – Gold continues to stair step lower. Recall that the big level to pay attention to on the downside is probably about 1780 (this is based on an important parallel). Price is threatening to break lower from a short term bearish flag. Bottom line…this chart is bearish, especially after the massive outside bearish day (show of weakness in Wyckoff logic) on 11/9.
If the rally from the November low in crude is impulsive, then action since the 11/11 high is a 4th wave. Proposed support is 41.00ish and upside focus is the August high at 43.78.
Cable continues to fail near the upper end of the channel from the 9/23 low. A break under today’s low would warrant a near term bearish stance with focus on 1.3000. Until then, respect potential for a final spike into 1.3382. This is daily reversal resistance (close of the high day) and the median line from the structure that originates at the September 2019 low. This line was precise resistance in April and June, and support in August.
I still like AUDJPY lower and resistance remains 76.20s, which is now reinforced by the 200 hour average. Again, downside potential is significant (the weekly charts from 11/17 are reproduced below).
11/17 – A possible head and shoulders top may be forming in AUDJPY since early June. The pattern is forming under 5+ year trendline resistance as well. The chart below shows a 200 week midpoint. I’ve noticed that midpoints are often more precise in identifying pivots than moving averages. Just one look clearly shows that the tool has been useful in recent years if operating in AUDJPY. The 4 hour chart (2 charts down) shows that the recent rally failed after churning around the upper parallel of a bearish fork that originates at the June high. The touches on the median line are ‘pip perfect’, which gives me confidence in this structure. I like AUDJPY lower.
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