USDJPY spiked above the noted line off of the September and December lows but closed just under the line. As such, I’m thinking that today’s high is a lower high within a bearish sequence from the 1/4 high. Focus remains on 112.20/50.
NQ broke the channel from the March low today but sharply reversed higher, putting in a high volume reversal in the process (see below chart). Watch the underside of the channel for resistance now near 15750 but the reversal casts doubt on that level as resistance. Proposed support is 15400. If this is a bigger top then both sides probably need to be frustrated…that’s how distribution works!
This one is throwing me for a loop. USDCNH broke out today. I’ve got USD reversal signals galore and this development suggests the exact opposite…or does it? It’s possible that EURUSD does rally (and USDJPY declines) while ‘risk FX’ suffers. It’s also possible that CNH trades in isolation. Regardless, watch for 6.3830 support. The long term chart with a long term Schiff fork is below.
AUDUSD has pulled back from just shy of the noted .7290. I want to see support at/near .7160/70 in order to maintain a constructive view. Failure to do so would leave me neutral at best.
Cable remains above the high, although barely. I continue to ‘think’ higher in GBPUSD given the well-defined price level that price is hovering above. Again, this is VWAP from the March 2020 low and channel support. There is also the high from March 2020 and the 38.2% retrace of the rally from March 2020. Finally, there is RSI divergence on the 4 hour chart. Magenta dots in the chart below show divergent readings over the past year.
All eyes should be on the month+ USDOLLAR channel line. As noted last week, a break below would serve as the trigger that the USD has finally turned.
AUDJPY low on Friday was at the top side of former trendline resistance and the September low. This is a good spot for a bounce (this pertains to ‘risk’ in general). 82.00/30 is well-defined for resistance. Watch for support at 79.40/50.
AUDJPY is the ultimate risk barometer. As usual, it’s WAY ahead of the equity market (the equity market is always the last to know). Price has reached the median line of the fork that originates at the May high. This is a good spot for a bounce and 82.40 is well-defined for resistance. This is the 25 line, which was support on 11/10. Ultimately, a downside objective is near 74 (see below).
DXY DAILY DXY is ticks from the median line of the structure that originates at the January low. If I were smarter then I would have stayed bullish the buck as long as price stayed within the structure. Lesson learned! That said, be aware of 95.70s for possible resistance. That’s the median line and June 2020 low….