News and Analysis

Market Update 12/1 – Nasdaq Levels and AUDJPY Setup


Powell top indeed.  Fear gauges are popping after a 5.6% decline.  The fear and greed index is 22 and the VIX closed at 31.  A relief rally is welcome and I’ll watch or NQ resistance near the underside of the median line (recently support) at about 16060.  A downside target / important test is the lower channel line near 15273.  A zoomed out chart is shown below.

11/22 – Is this the ‘Powell top’?  XLK (tech ETF) made a daily volume reversal today and Nasdaq futures (see below) topped a few ticks under channel resistance.  This channel was resistance for the September top.  From a very big picture perspective, I’ll note that the market cap of the 5 largest companies as a percentage of the S&P 500 is extreme (see 2 charts down).  The 5 largest companies are all tech companies by the way.  In other words, it’s a highly concentrated market.  Historically, this is unsustainable.



AUDUSD is closing in on the massive .6990-.7050 zone.  The bottom of the zone is defined by the November 2020 low and the top of the zone is the 38.2% retrace of the rally from March 2020.  The December 2019 high at .7032 is in the middle of this zone.  NFP is Friday.  One of my favorite counter trend setups is for a capitulation low on NFP.  Bigger picture, mid-.6400s could be in the cards in 2022 (see below).  My immediate focus however is trading into proposed support.



NZDUSD is in the same position as AUDUSD.  The 38.2% retrace of the rally from March 2020 and December 2019 high are proposed support at .6702/56.  That said, .6860 may be the ceiling.  Note the dashed line that crosses highs and lows since December 2019…it’s dangerous to be a bull while price is under this line.


AUDJPY is the ultimate risk barometer.  As usual, it’s WAY ahead of the equity market (the equity market is always the last to know).  Price has reached the median line of the fork that originates at the May high.  This is a good spot for a bounce and 82.40 is well-defined for resistance.  This is the 25 line, which was support on 11/10.  Ultimately, a downside objective is near 74 (see below).