Market Update 2/10 – USD Bounces at Key Trendline
USDOLLAR held the trendline that originates at the September low today. A break of this line is what I’m waiting for to signal ‘all clear’ on the downside for the USD.
Market Update 2/9 – Navigating Near Term USD Levels
EURUSD continues to meander sideways following last week’s rip but that should change with U.S. inflation data tomorrow. I’m wondering if the ‘ideal’ support is 1.1345. This is the top side of the trendline from May and trendline from the May low. It’s also the 38.2% retrace of the rally. A drop to there could complete 3 waves down from last week’s high.
Market Update 2/8 – Watch Gold Up Here!
I’ve been focusing on near term gold levels recently, which have played out well. 1815 was support today for example. However, don’t forget the big picture! Gold has been ‘coiling’ for over a year and is just under the trendline that originates at the January 2021 high. A break above this line would suggest at least a test of the 2020 high. Finally, notice the perfect channel re-test (channel from 2015 low).
Market Update 2/7 – Major USD ETF Signal
UUP (USD ETF) completed a weekly volume reversal last week! Most signals since inception of the ETF have been identified important turns in the ETF and therefore the USD in general.
Market Update 2/3 – EURUSD Breakout
EURUSD has broken out and upside focus is squarely on 1.1660s. This is the 200 day average and August low. 1.1355/80s is well-defined for support now. The zone was resistance in December and is also the top side of the former resistance line that was just broken.
Market Update 2/2 – SPX into Resistance
SPX has retraced 61.8% of the decline from the high. This is also ‘original’ trendline resistance. This is a perfect spot for at least an interim high. I’m looking lower towards 4494 or so (2022 VWAP) and possibly 4404.
Market Update 2/1 – USD Reversal Continues
EURUSD is unfolding in a clear impulsive manner. A small 5th wave may be underway now towards 1.1310 or so. Eventually, the top side of the trendline that originates at the January high (blue line) will be in line for support…maybe near 1.1200.
Market Update 1/31 – Opposing Monthly and Weekly Reversals
January produced some monthly reversals of note. SPY made a 1 bar monthly volume reversal. Notice that reversals also occurred in June/July 2007 (high) and October 2002 (low). There were failed signals however in 1997. Obviously, monthly signals may not be all that timely. These are ‘big picture’ observations. It’s important to understand in light of weekly bullish reversals in indices last week! These charts are shown below the monthly charts in this post.
Market Update 1/27 – Last Chance for Gold
Gold cut through the proposed support zone with ease has already reached the lower parallel of the Schiff fork from the August low. This is ‘last chance’ support for gold in my opinion. If price doesn’t hold here then there is no reason from my vantage point to consider the long side. 1830 is now resistance on a bounce.