Market Update 4/20 – Risk Reversing
AUDUSD reversed sharply lower today after coming within pips of the 61.8% retrace of the drop from the February high and early January high. Near term downside focus is .7620. Proposed resistance is .7750.
Market Update 4/19 – USD Dumps – What Now?
The sharp USD drop on Monday makes me neutral at best for now. I had wanted to see USDOLLAR hold the median line from the multiyear structure in order to stay constructive (see below). That said, DXY has reached VWAP from the January low and USDOLLAR has reached the 3/18 low. The 61.8% retrace for USDOLLAR is slightly lower at 11705. Keep an eye on these levels for possible support.
Market Update: December 28
GBPUSD continues to oscillate around the critical 1.3500. A gap higher on perceived positive Brexit news was followed by weakness throughout the day…a classic ‘sell the news’ dynamic. 1.3500/25 remains proposed resistance. The top of this zone is a high volume level. Near term focus remains towards 1.3100ish. The level is defined by trendlines and is just under the 12/11 low.
Market Update: December 27
DXY is trading in a tight holiday range. Strength above the 12/21 high of 91.02 is needed in order to suggest that a low (maybe wave 5 of 5) is in place. A longer term chart is shown below. The recent low is a few ticks above the March 2009 high…good spot for a low. 95.00ish is eventual resistance.
Market Update: December 22
NZDJPY filled the previously uncovered close from May 2019 early this Month and is threatening to break down from a 4 week topping pattern now. The 200 week average has been resistance for years and is proving itself again at the current juncture. Near term focus is on former resistance at 72.00 with a much deeper drop (69.00ish) from the current level possible given the specter of 5 waves up from the March low.
Market Update: December 21
Copper continues to trade on both sides of the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 2011. I continue to follow near term levels from the channel off of the March low. The center line is about 3.50. That needs to break in order to suggest that copper is lower, probably until the lower parallel.
Market Update: December 20
DXY is up sharply in early week trading, raising the specter that wave ‘5 of 5’ is complete at last week’s low. If the rally stretches into 5 waves, then focus will be on buying a small pullback for what likely proves to be a multi-month rally in order to correct the entire decline from the March high. Stay tuned.
Market Update: December 17
old pulled back to 1819 before resuming higher. The next level of interest is 1921/30. This is the 2011 high, 2 legs up from the low, and a slope confluence (short term bullish upper parallel and medium term bearish upper parallel).
Market Update: December 16
DXY nearly reached 90.02 today. Low was 90.13 and price reversed until FOMC, after which the buck was no longer allowed to rally. I maintain that reversal risk is high from this level (90.02). Note also the blue lines that connect lows since October 2019.