USDCAD ripped into the upper parallel of the multi month bearish fork today and turned lower. Resistance is also defined by VWAP from the high and the 50 day average. Given the level, I’m looking for USDCAD to trade lower.
SPX printed 4447 after the close. This is a good spot for a bounce, especially given elevated volumes in SPY and QQQ today. The red bars on the charts below indicate when the volume is at least 1.5 x the 20 day average at a 50 day low. The market usually bounces following one of these high volume days, although there are of course exceptions. My ‘favored’ view is that price bounces but that the bounce fails near 4530.
Is USDCHF about to get destroyed? After failing at a 2+ year trendline in late 2021, price has broken a year long trendline and now re-tested the underside of the line the last 2 weeks. This chart is extremely bearish.
USDJPY spiked above the noted line off of the September and December lows but closed just under the line. As such, I’m thinking that today’s high is a lower high within a bearish sequence from the 1/4 high. Focus remains on 112.20/50.
Make or break time for USDOLLAR! Price closed right at 8 month channel support. IF price breaks below the channel, then the objective is the channel extension which intersects the March-May line and March high at 11929 in early February.
1/11 – Pay attention to the USD indices over the next few days. The big level for USDOLLAR is about 12115. This is the trendline from the May low and September high. A break below would ‘announce’ that the USD trend is lower.
NQ broke the channel from the March low today but sharply reversed higher, putting in a high volume reversal in the process (see below chart). Watch the underside of the channel for resistance now near 15750 but the reversal casts doubt on that level as resistance. Proposed support is 15400. If this is a bigger top then both sides probably need to be frustrated…that’s how distribution works!
This one is throwing me for a loop. USDCNH broke out today. I’ve got USD reversal signals galore and this development suggests the exact opposite…or does it? It’s possible that EURUSD does rally (and USDJPY declines) while ‘risk FX’ suffers. It’s also possible that CNH trades in isolation. Regardless, watch for 6.3830 support. The long term chart with a long term Schiff fork is below.
USDJPY has nearly reached the noted zone so pay attention. Aside from channel resistance, the level just above the market is defined by the late 2017 and 2018 highs at 114.55/74. A pullback from the zone would ‘make sense’. If reversal evidence arises, then there may be an opportunity to play the short side although 113.21 is in line for support (see below).
In my view, USDOLLAR has broken out and is headed to 12130/60 (the next decision point). IF price pulls back (not or later), then the parallel that has been support/resistance since June 2020 (magenta line) is proposed support along with the 50 day average at 11940. That could happen on Wednesday with FOMC, at a later date, or not at all! Bottom line, 11940 is proposed support and I’m looking towards 12130/60.
Copper broke today and the first level of interest on the downside is the 23.6% retrace of the rally from March 2020 at 4.20. This level coincides with resistance from this March. Former support at 4.4440 (also the 50 day average) is now proposed resistance.