Market Update 2/7 – Major USD ETF Signal
UUP (USD ETF) completed a weekly volume reversal last week! Most signals since inception of the ETF have been identified important turns in the ETF and therefore the USD in general.
Market Update 2/3 – EURUSD Breakout
EURUSD has broken out and upside focus is squarely on 1.1660s. This is the 200 day average and August low. 1.1355/80s is well-defined for support now. The zone was resistance in December and is also the top side of the former resistance line that was just broken.
Market Update 2/2 – SPX into Resistance
SPX has retraced 61.8% of the decline from the high. This is also ‘original’ trendline resistance. This is a perfect spot for at least an interim high. I’m looking lower towards 4494 or so (2022 VWAP) and possibly 4404.
Market Update 2/1 – USD Reversal Continues
EURUSD is unfolding in a clear impulsive manner. A small 5th wave may be underway now towards 1.1310 or so. Eventually, the top side of the trendline that originates at the January high (blue line) will be in line for support…maybe near 1.1200.
Market Update 1/31 – Opposing Monthly and Weekly Reversals
January produced some monthly reversals of note. SPY made a 1 bar monthly volume reversal. Notice that reversals also occurred in June/July 2007 (high) and October 2002 (low). There were failed signals however in 1997. Obviously, monthly signals may not be all that timely. These are ‘big picture’ observations. It’s important to understand in light of weekly bullish reversals in indices last week! These charts are shown below the monthly charts in this post.
Market Update 1/27 – Last Chance for Gold
Gold cut through the proposed support zone with ease has already reached the lower parallel of the Schiff fork from the August low. This is ‘last chance’ support for gold in my opinion. If price doesn’t hold here then there is no reason from my vantage point to consider the long side. 1830 is now resistance on a bounce.
Market Update 1/26 – GBPUSD Nearing Support Zone
Pay attention to 1.3375-1.3410 in GBPUSD for support. The zone is defined by the 12/16 high, 61.8% retrace of the rally from December, and September low. The bottom of the zone also intersects with the lower parallel of the short term bearish fork (see 4 hour chart below).
Market Update 1/25 – AUDJPY Setup in FOMC
Keep an eye on AUDJPY. Monday’s low tagged the center line of the channel from the October high. The 25 line cuts through former lows and is in line with the well-defined 82.10…watch that for resistance. A break lower would target 78.84 and 76.80s, which is 2 legs down from the October high and the lower parallel of the channel. If price breaks below the center line then the underside of that line becomes resistance. Bottom line, there are solid reference points that should help return to the short side.
Market Update 1/24 – Risk Reversal Provides USDCAD Setup
USDCAD ripped into the upper parallel of the multi month bearish fork today and turned lower. Resistance is also defined by VWAP from the high and the 50 day average. Given the level, I’m looking for USDCAD to trade lower.