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April 11, 2022

Market Update 4/11 – USDCAD Trade Setup

USDCAD has reached the level noted for resistance. This level is huge. It’s defined by VWAP from the March high, 200 period average on the 4 hour chart, underside of the trendline from the 2021 low, and year open! My ‘guess’ is that price rolls over but I need a response, such as a price and/or volume reversal, in order to short. Stay tuned.
April 6, 2022

Market Update 4/6 – Commodity FX Corrections Unfolding

I’m torn on Kiwi given the prospect for a deeper AUDUSD pullback. In any case, continue to be aware of the long term neckline (blue line), which has been resistance and support so far in 2022. The line is about .6890. If we get a decent reaction at that level, then it will be worth taking a shot on the long side with a tight stop.
April 6, 2022

Market Update 4/5 – Commodity FX Due for a Pullback

Today’s post is extremely short as I’ve been having tech issues throughout the day. Tuesday’s Aussie spike on ‘news’ (RBA) has top written all over it. Price spiked into and reversed from a well-defined level (61.8% retrace of the decline from the 2021 high and former support) following RBA. Perhaps we’ll finally get the pullback into the top side of former trendline resistance (blue line), which is near .7375 now.
March 31, 2022

Market Update 3/31 – Elliott Wave Implications for Euro Crosses

EURUSD appears to be completing an A-B-C decline from the 1.1185 high. The decline would consist of 2 equal legs at 1.1017 and the 61.8% retrace of the latest leg up is 1.1038. The lower parallel from the short term bullish fork is in line with these levels. Bottom line, look slightly lower before the next leg up gets underway.
March 28, 2022

Market Update 3/28 – Crypto Nearing Important Levels

The triangle scenario described last week is no longer valid in BTCUSD. However, note that price has reached the 200 day average and the upper parallel from the median line of the fork that originates at the April 2021 high is slightly higher…near 49500. Pay close attention to that level for resistance if reached because since the January low registered right at the median line.
March 23, 2022

Market Update 3/22 – Commodity FX Breaks Out

GBPUSD has already followed through on last week’s reversal. This is somewhat frustrating because we didn’t get a chance to buy proposed 1.3080/90 support. In any case, support now should be 1.3194-1.3210. The big test on the upside (near term at least) is 1.3360. This is the January low and 200 period average on the 4 hour chart.
March 21, 2022

Market Update 3/21 – Stocks into Resistance

The Dow has reached and responded to the noted level for resistance. The rally from 2/24 also channels in a corrective manner (see hourly chart below). I’m ‘thinking’ lower from this level with possible support near the center line of the corrective channel (about 33860).
March 17, 2022

Market Update 3/16 – Key USDSEK Development

USDSEK held up for 2 days before crashing though the median line today. The drop under the median line is a key bearish development for the USD generally. The underside of the line is now resistance…as it was in June, July, August, November, January, and February. That’s currently about 9.56. The next downside test is 9.15/18 (lower parallel and former resistance).
March 15, 2022

Market Update 3/15 – EURUSD 1.1000ish is Big into FOMC

It’s been a little over a week since EURUSD made the low at 1.0806…right on the trendline from the 2017 low. The pullback from the 3/10 high appears in 3 waves and price has held the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the low…so far. I want to see strength above 1.1011 (high volume level) before committing to the long side with initial focus at 1.1215/30, which is 2022 VWAP, the month open, and 2 legs up from the low. FOMC is tomorrow so hopefully we get clarity regarding broader reversal prospects after tomorrow!
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