Sterling Traders Brace for Volatile Month Ahead
The British Pound weakened against its major rivals on Wednesday amid reports that Brexit talks are stalling and as the specter of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit reared its head again.
The British Pound weakened against its major rivals on Wednesday amid reports that Brexit talks are stalling and as the specter of a ‘no-deal’ Brexit reared its head again.
Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele, our Chief Technical Analyst.
GBPUSD erased most of yesterday’s rally but I remain constructive. In fact, price found support near the short term trendline that originates at the 5/18 low. I want to see strength above 1.2300 (blue line) before committing capital to the upside again though. In general, this level has been support and resistance for a little over a month.
USDOLLAR found resistance at the cited level (recovery high was 12536) and broke down today. Individual USD crosses nailed their supports as well (see levels noted below from last week). My wave count interpretation is that weakness from the 5/18 high is either a 3rd or C wave so downside potential is significant in the coming weeks and months.
Risk sensitive currencies such as the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar gained ground in early Tuesday trading as hopes grew over global economic recovery from the fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic. Positive coronavirus vaccine news and indications that global economies are slowly reopening helped to buoy investor mood.
Nasdaq futures and QQQ (weekly QQQ is below) covered their closes from 2/21 on Wednesday and closed beneath those levels today. Mistrust of strength has been misguided but the gap fill and down day today at least presents a bearish risk point (Wednesday’s high).
USD/CAD fell to trendline support on Wednesday, as the Canadian dollar was boosted by rising crude oil prices and hopes of a global economic recovery. Equities, crude oil and the risk sensitive Australian dollar also benefited from rising investor confidence.
It ‘feels’ like the USD is on the verge of breaking down. That said, USDOLLAR is back into important support (line off of 2011 and 2014 lows and a major horizontal level…see weekly chart below). Support is support until broken so respect bounce potential with resistance near 12520.
We need look no further than Turkey to understand the potential disaster faced by countries unable to keep up with general obligations. With dwindling foreign reserves of any kind and hefty debt, the country is forced to turn to allies for help, including U.S. swap lines. With tourism effectively halted, the country faces a significant risk of defaulting on its obligations in the coming months.