Nasdaq futures and QQQ (weekly QQQ is below) covered their closes from 2/21 on Wednesday and closed beneath those levels today. Mistrust of strength has been misguided but the gap fill and down day today at least presents a bearish risk point (Wednesday’s high).
USD/CAD fell to trendline support on Wednesday, as the Canadian dollar was boosted by rising crude oil prices and hopes of a global economic recovery. Equities, crude oil and the risk sensitive Australian dollar also benefited from rising investor confidence.
It ‘feels’ like the USD is on the verge of breaking down. That said, USDOLLAR is back into important support (line off of 2011 and 2014 lows and a major horizontal level…see weekly chart below). Support is support until broken so respect bounce potential with resistance near 12520.
We need look no further than Turkey to understand the potential disaster faced by countries unable to keep up with general obligations. With dwindling foreign reserves of any kind and hefty debt, the country is forced to turn to allies for help, including U.S. swap lines. With tourism effectively halted, the country faces a significant risk of defaulting on its obligations in the coming months.
Resistance came in slightly higher than thought for GBPUSD but the idea remains the same. Proposed support for long entry is 1.2160/90s. The bottom of the zone is the 61.8% retrace of this week’s rally and 4/6 low. The top of the zone is VWAP from this week’s low (see hourly futures chart 2 charts down). Additional bullish evidence includes a daily volume reversal yesterday (see daily futures chart below). The last daily volume reversal was in January 2017, which was an important low. Also, don’t forget seasonal tendencies are now bullish. Elliott structure suggests that the rally from this week’s low is either a C wave or 3rd wave, so upside potential is significant.
Gold consolidated in early trading on Tuesday after reaching its highest levels since October 2012 on Monday. The yellow metal was pressured and stocks jumped amid rising risk appetite, spurred by news of a potential COVID-19 vaccine.
Gold is pulling back to the top side of former triangle resistance. If gold is bullish, then suppport should be 1716/22. I’m looking to buy in that zone for resumption of upside. If the noted zone fails to hold, then gold would turn extremely bearish because the recent breakout would be considered a completed terminal thrust from a triangle.
The downside remains favored in AUDUSD towards the .6250s. The former 4th wave low is .6254 and VWAP from the March low is currently .6249. This is also the lower parallel of the bearish fork from the high. If AUDUSD is bearish then resistance should be about .6460, which is the underside of the line off of the 4/21 and 5/6 lows and VWAP from the April high. Seasonal tendencies are bearish for the next few weeks (see below).