Market Update – July 22

Market Update – July 22

This is a picture of the TV in my living room earlier today. I keep Bloomberg on throughout the day for background noise and the scrolling headlines on the right of the screen are the same headlines that are published on the app. The headline circled in red would not appear if the short USD trade weren’t extremely crowded, at least on a short term basis. Sentiment is ripe for a reversal.

Market Update – Big Seasonality Shift Now

Market Update – Big Seasonality Shift Now

Seasonal tendencies are now bullish-sideways for DXY (and bearish-sideways for EURUSD) through mid-August. The biggest shift in seasonal tendencies however is in the commodity currency complex. AUDUSD and NZDUSD enter their most bearish period of the year starting now. USDCAD is in its most bullish period of the year. Nasdaq seasonal tendencies are bearish through August 14th. These charts are shown below.

Market Update – Finally a USD Turn?!

Market Update – Finally a USD Turn?!

The ‘about face’ in USD action today strongly suggests that we’re on the right track insofar as being near term USD bulls. Regarding EURUSD specifically, the 5 wave rally from the 4/24 low is ‘textbook’ so expectations are for at least a corrective pullback. The year open at 1.1260 along with parallels just below are likely initial support for a bounce.