Gold traded into proposed resistance at 1908 today and immediately pulled back. I am of the view that price resumes lower from the current level towards the lower parallel near 1750. Failure to stay below today’s low would risk strength into the upper parallel of the bearish channel near 1940.
We looked at DXY yesterday, remember that the neckline is 93.50 and proposed support for that index. USDOLLAR is nearly identical with the neckline near 12040. I’m in the re-test of the breakout level (neckline) and then higher for the USD.
Silver broke the trendline from the March low last week and is bouncing from short term oversold conditions. It would be quite a bounce but the underside of the noted trendline intersects the well-defined 26.10/28 zone late this week.
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To determine if gold is a bubble, we need to understand the demand for gold, what an asset bubble is and the current renewed interest in gold.
The Dow completed the short term head and shoulders top so focus is on the mentioned 25853 (then reassess). The bounce over the last 2 days should see resistance from the breakdown level near 27500.
USDOLLAR finally broke above the upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high. The top side of this line should now provide support near 12010. The next upside level of interest is the March low at 12129. This level intersects corrective channel resistance on Wednesday.
The Dow is testing critical support from the June high. This level has been support since 8/20. A break below would complete a head and shoulders top that’s been forming since early June. The measured objective would be 25853.
USDOLLAR failed yet again at the upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high. Pay attention to 11940, which is 2 legs down from the 9/10 high and the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the 9/1 low, for support. This is also near the 8/19 low and top side of the line that crosses highs in August (magenta line).