News and Analysis

Market Update – August 28


Gold is sitting on top of the 2011 high…major level.  A break below would open up 1765/90 (see hourly chart below), which is a well-defined zone and intersects the lower parallel of the Schiff fork from the high.  Proposed resistance is 1941 (high volume level from today).  As noted yesterday, I’ve been tracking near term fluctuations in GLD.  High today was just above 185, which keeps the short term bearish channel intact (see yesterday’s GLD chart).

8/26 – Since the 8/6 high in gold, I’ve been closely tracking GLD.  The rally from 8/12 found resistance at the 61.8% retrace and a short term bearish channel is confirmed following the median line touch.  If GLD has turned lower, then resistance should be 185.00 (38.2% retrace and VWAP from the high).



For the 4th day since 7/31, USDOLLAR low today was on the median line from the fork that originates at the 2016 high.  Clearly, the level is important.  If price breaks below, then real crash risk is on the table.  However, I’m positive as long as price is above the line.  Strength above 12087 would complete a month long bullish base (see hourly chart below).

8/26 – Generally speaking, it’s been ‘hurry up and wait’ for resolution in the USD over the last 5 weeks.  If USDOLLAR is carving a bottom then the center line of the Schiff fork from the March high should provide support near 11967.



USDJPY is trading perfectly between bullish and bearish channels.  Throw in the bullish outside day and month open hold (105.80) and it’s worth taking a bullish stance against today’s low (105.60).  Proposed support is the high volume level from today at 106.22 (also the 8/20 high).  Initial upside focus is still 107.80.

8/25 – USDJPY tagged the center line of the channel from the 7/31 low today, which confirms the channel as ‘operable’.  A break above the channel opens up the top of the channel, which intersects channel resistance from the March high at 107.80 (200 day average is 108.00).  Proposed support is 105.90.