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Trading Analysis

May 11, 2020

Market Update – May 11

Since reaching the long term parallel (magenta line) on 4/13, gold has traded sideways. Price rolled over last week from short term trendline resistance so be aware of the lower boundary near 1683. A break below there would leave price action since 4/13 as a consolidation top. Immediate downside focus would then be the 3/31 low at 1576.
May 8, 2020

US Nonfarm Payrolls: Record 20.5 Million Jobs Lost in April

The devastating effect of Covid-19 on the US economy became clearer on Friday with the release of the highly anticipated US employment report.
May 8, 2020

Market Update – May 8

WTI traded into the 2016 low today and reversed lower. My working assumption is that crude is building a bullish base. 18.20-19.20 is the zone to watch for the next low. This zone is defined by support and resistance since late March.
May 7, 2020

Market Update – May 7

BoE is tomorrow and it looks like the bounce to 1.2484 is the extent of the corrective bounce in wave 2 of C. Proposed resistance is now 1.2405/20, which is a well-defined horizontal level and the neckline of a short term head and shoulders.
May 6, 2020

Market Update – May 6

USDJPY is nearing the center line of the channel from the 4/6 high. When a market is nearing the center line, I’m always on the lookout for acceleration in the trend…in this case that’s lower. Focus remains towards the lower channel and 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low at 105.19.
May 5, 2020

Dollar Bid as US/China Tensions Rise

The US dollar rallied sharply on Monday, lifted by safe haven flows as fears grew over rising tensions between the US and China. Both US President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Mike Pompeo have laid the blame for the pandemic on China.
May 5, 2020

Market Update – May 5

ES found support today from VWAP off of the Feb high. This level was resistance in March and support in April. I am treating last week’s high as the bearish risk point but given the support hit today a bigger bounce is favored. Resistance should be 2890-2930.
May 4, 2020

Market Update – May 4

A flat is still possible. Thursday’s low would compose wave B. If this interpretation is correct then wave C should carry above 12593. The most likely spot for resistance remains the wave 4 and red parallel at 12692. Bottom line, USDOLLAR reacted at critical support (l0ng term magenta trendline) so focus is higher as long as price is above last week’s low.
April 30, 2020

Bitcoin Lifted by Rising Risk Sentiment

Bitcoin extended its gains in early Thursday trading, reaching almost 9,500 before retracing sharply. The world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization has benefited from its appeal as a hedge against inflation amid unprecedented stimulus by central banks.
April 30, 2020

Market Update – April 30

Wow. I did NOT imagine that the S&P would be back at these levels. As I type in after hours trading, ES is taking out the 2/28 close. Volume on 2/28 was the highest since August 2011 (U.S. debt downgrade). High volume days are important because they represent a ‘vested interest’ at that specific area.
April 29, 2020

Market Update – April 29

To review, USDOLLAR dropped in 5 waves from the March high. The 4/14 low was right on the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low. At that point, I was looking for a 3 wave rally back to 12692. Instead, USDOLLAR has traded in a tight range. Price is nearing the 4/14 low. It’s not impossible that the rally into the 4/21 high at 12593 is the entire correction but the correction would be awfully small in both time and price retracement. So, it’s possible that a flat is unfolding. Under this scenario, a C wave rally (probably sharp) will begin from nearby levels (may or may not take out the 4/14 first).
April 28, 2020

AUD/USD Reaches 6-Week High Amid Easing Restrictions

AUD/USD rallied to its highest level since March 11 in early trading on Tuesday, as Australia stands out as one of the countries having best managing the Coronavirus pandemic. The country responded quickly, closing its borders and imposing restrictions on movement. With new cases falling sharply over recent weeks, Australia began to ease social distancing restrictions. Sydney’s famed Bondi beach was reopened on Tuesday to local swimmers after a month-long closure.
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