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Trading Analysis

November 24, 2021

Market Update 11/23 – Watching Gold and Yen Here

***This is the last post until next week. The Thanksgiving holiday is coming at the right time for me…I’ve been ‘out of tune’ with markets for the last 2 months and need a breather. Happy Thanksgiving!*** Remember the gold ‘breakout’ above the critical 1834. It was short lived and the yellow metal has been slammed lower the last few days. Focus is squarely on the slope confluence (blue lines) near 1769. That level needs to provide support in order to hold a constructive view.
November 23, 2021

Market Update 11/22 – The Powell Top?

Is this the ‘Powell top’? XLK (tech ETF) made a daily volume reversal today and Nasdaq futures (see below) topped a few ticks under channel resistance. This channel was resistance for the September top. From a very big picture perspective, I’ll note that the market cap of the 5 largest companies as a percentage of the S&P 500 is extreme (see 2 charts down). The 5 largest companies are all tech companies by the way. In other words, it’s a highly concentrated market. Historically, this is unsustainable.
November 19, 2021

Market Update – 11/18 – USDTRY (gasp!) Channel

The TRY crisis has led to USDTRY near (or at…I’ll explain) the top of a decade + channel. The channel top when using intraday highs/lows is about 11.61. When using daily closing prices, USDTRY is at the line now. An interesting juncture and one that wouldn’t be surprising as resistance. That’s as bold as I’ll get regarding USDTRY comments right now.
November 18, 2021

Market Update 11/17 – USD Reversal?

EURUSD low today was 1.1263. How about that trendline! I can’t think of a better technical combination, a Fibonacci level and long term well-defined trendline, to mark an important turning point. I am bullish against the low. The first hurdle on the upside is the weekly opening price at 1.1446 followed by former support at 1.1525. Support should be 1.1290-1.1300.
November 17, 2021

Market Update 11/16 – Bearish Crypto?

BTCUSD has followed through on its 11/10 reversal. I love this setup. Price has broken the median line, which is now proposed resistance along with the 11/12 low at 62295. Initial downside focus is channel support (blue line) in the 52000s. A longer term view is below.
November 16, 2021

Market Update 11/15 – AUDJPY Elliott Pattern

DXY DAILY DXY is ticks from the median line of the structure that originates at the January low.  If I were smarter then I would have […]
November 15, 2021

Market Update 11/14 – British Pound VWAP Support Reached

GBPUSD held VWAP from the March 2020 low on Friday. As noted last week, lower parallel support is slightly lower near 1.3320 (see below) though. If the rally from last week’s low extends into a small 5 wave advance then I’ll want to but a small dip.
November 12, 2021

Market Update 11/11 – Trade Setup in Gold

The cleanest setup from my vantage point at the moment is in gold. Price has broken out (remember 1834 was possible resistance…it didn’t do anything so it’s support) and 1834 is proposed support. Former resistance is reinforced by the top side of the line off of the 2020 and May highs along with the center line of the short term bullish channel (which was formerly resistance). Upside focus is the May high at 1916.
November 11, 2021

Market Update 11/10 – USD New Highs – What Now?

So much for all of that fancy Elliott mumbo jumbo. Remember the ‘5 waves down at multiple degree…blah blah blah’. USDOLLAR (quarter each of EUR, GBP, JPY, AUD) ripped to its highest level since September 2020 today. Sometimes various methods work and sometimes they don’t. The methods that I employ haven’t worked well for a few months now. This will change. It always does. Anyway, USDOLLAR is still in the vicinity of longer term resistance. The zone extends to 12181, which is the December 2019 low and parallel resistance.
November 10, 2021

Market Update 11/9 – Time to Fade CAD?

Since USDCAD is USDCAD, it had to test Friday’s high before reversing lower. In any case, there is no change to the view that a 5th wave lower is underway. I don’t have all of the measurements on the chart because I like to keep it clean but realize that wave 3 is exactly 161.8% of wave 1. If today was the 4th wave high, then wave 5 would equal wave 1 at 1.2184. This is in line with the 5/13 high at 1.2203. Bottom line, I’m looking towards 1.2200ish. There is a high volume level at 1.2459 that is proposed resistance now. Finally, an 8 hour volume reversal triggered today (see futures chart below, which extends back one year).
November 9, 2021

Market Update 11/8 – Metals Near Pullback Levels

Gold is closing in on the noted level from the line that extends off of the 2020 and May highs and resistance since July near 1834. I’m ‘thinking’ pullback initially from the well-defined level but will be tracking for support beginning near 1800 since I’m of the mind that the broader trend is higher.
November 5, 2021

Market Update 11/4 – Is USDSEK the ‘Tell’?

I have not been ‘in tune’ with USD moves for the better part of the last month. During periods of uncertainty, I find it helpful to go back to the basics. USDSEK is often a ‘tell’ for general USD trends and pivots. Here are several objective technical observations; USDSEK is holding the 200 day midpoint (similar to the 200 day average)…this is bullish. The decline from the 8/20 high is in 2 equal legs…this is characteristics of a corrective decline within a larger advance…bullish Daily RSI registered ‘overbought’ readings at price highs over the last year and RSI readings at price lows have been above 30…this is also bullish. In summary, the weight of evidence is USDSEK bullish and therefore generally USD bullish (notably against European FX). At least that’s where my mind is at the moment.