The Potential Impact of Trump Tariffs on the Forex Market: Key Currency Pairs
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The Potential Impact of Trump Tariffs on the Forex Market: Key Currency Pairs

Tariffs have the potential to disrupt trade flows, alter economic growth expectations, and influence central bank policies—all of which can significantly affect currency valuations. Here’s an analysis of how the proposed tariffs could impact key forex pairs.

SPX DAILY

Market Update 5/23 – Temporary Lows in Place for Indices and USD Trades

As noted, evidence for a low in the S&P is strong. Friday’s low is at the line that crosses the January and February lows and the LONG TERM parallel (see below chart). Also, VWAP from the 2020 low in SPY held last week (see 2 charts down). 4105 is the initial level to pay attention to but 4270s in the index and 426.00s in SPY line up more significant levels…eventually.

AUDUSD 4 HOUR

Market Update 5/19 – Impulsive Action in Commodity FX

AUDUSD has turned up sharply from the line that crosses lows since August 2021. Also, .6828 is the January 2019 low (flash crash low). Price has reached the 20 day average and the line off of the April highs is just above the market. The rally appears in 5 waves too which raises risk of a pullback. Proposed support is the former 4th wave of one less degree at .6950.

TLT WEEKLY

Market Update 5/16 – Weekly Bond Market Reversal

TLT completed a 2 week high volume reversal last week. Over the last 10 years, this signal has occurred right at or very close to a major turn. Also, a 1 week volume reversal triggered last week (see below). This is just the second 1 week bullish reversal since the inception of the ETF. The other one marked the 2007 low.