Pay attention to the USD indices over the next few days. The big level for USDOLLAR is about 12115. This is the trendline from the May low and September high. A break below would ‘announce’ that the USD trend is lower.
NQ broke the channel from the March low today but sharply reversed higher, putting in a high volume reversal in the process (see below chart). Watch the underside of the channel for resistance now near 15750 but the reversal casts doubt on that level as resistance. Proposed support is 15400. If this is a bigger top then both sides probably need to be frustrated…that’s how distribution works!
This one is throwing me for a loop. USDCNH broke out today. I’ve got USD reversal signals galore and this development suggests the exact opposite…or does it? It’s possible that EURUSD does rally (and USDJPY declines) while ‘risk FX’ suffers. It’s also possible that CNH trades in isolation. Regardless, watch for 6.3830 support. The long term chart with a long term Schiff fork is below.
ETHUSD has broken the line described yesterday (magenta line). This line is resistance if reached near 3640. Price is testing the 200 day average now (not shown) but the more important level is probably VWAP from the May 2021 high at 3050 (see below). Bigger picture, my view is that price drops to 985 or so in a 4th wave.
Well, the re-test is out of the question but this USDJPY move could be a false breakout. The chart above shows square root levels. Square the year opening price and add/subtract that number in increments. For USDJPY, the square root of 11510 is 107 so the first square root up is 116.17. The idea is to look for a turn at the first square root level during the first week of the year in a market that is already extended. Several examples are below. An Elliott case is also made for a top as the rally from January 2021 consists of 2 equal legs (log scale). This chart is below. An objective trigger isn’t present yet.
AUDUSD has pulled back from just shy of the noted .7290. I want to see support at/near .7160/70 in order to maintain a constructive view. Failure to do so would leave me neutral at best.
This is the last update of 2021. A new calendar year is significant and those details will be addressed next week. The charts in this post highlight why I’m heading into 2022 with a USD bearish mindset. The chart above is a starting point insofar as making a USD bearish argument although the big picture ‘textbook’ trigger doesn’t occur until a break of the channel near 95. Until then, respect potential for strength into the 61.8% retrace of the decline from March 2020 at 97.73.
Not much to write about today but crypto did get slammed. The most interesting short setup is SOLUSD. Again, the massive wedge broke in mid-December. A head and shoulders top may be forming since September as well. 186.30 or so is proposed resistance (see below). Immediate downside focus is the proposed neckline near 155.
AUDUSD continues to make progress within what I believe is a new bullish sequence. As such, focus is on identifying support to buy. .7170 sticks out as the ideal level. This has been an important horizontal level since the September low. The price intersects short term channel support at the end of this week (and year). Maybe we get a big buying opportunity right at the beginning of 2022! .7290 or so is still proposed resistance for a pullback.