Market Update 12/15 – USD Finally Turns

SPOT GOLD DAILY

After weeks of basically nothing (same as major FX), gold finally went for the 1759 tag and reversed sharply higher.  I’m bullish and looking towards 1834, which is the center line and resistance from July-September.  Support should be the high volume from today near 1770.

12/2 – Gold is trading right at 1769.  I like the yellow metal down here but we might get a tag of 1759 to take out the November low before ripping higher.

EURUSD HOURLY

Is the nightmare correction over for EURUSD?  The ‘look’ is definitely there.  For Elliott nerds, everything from the 11/30 high constitutes a complex correction labeled W-X-Y.  This means that the drop is in 3 waves but the corrective legs of the structure are also corrective in nature.  Upside focus is the 161.8% retrace at 1.1540, which is also the 10/29 low.  Proposed support is the high volume level from today at 1.1273 and 61.8% of today’s range at 1.1252.  ECB is tomorrow.

12/14 – EURUSD printed an 1.1186 low 3 weeks ago.  The 61.8% retrace of the 2016-2018 rally is 1.1186.  The top side of the 2014-2018 line is also at the current level.  The zoomed in chart below highlights what I consider a trigger line for longs (magenta line).  The 3rd chart down shows the 5 wave rally from the 11/24 low.  The ensuing 3 weeks have have been a corrective nightmare.  I’m looking for this to resolve higher.

GBPUSD 4 HOUR

Cable low in place?  There isn’t much to add to comments from 11/30 other than noting that VWAP from the March 2020 low has also provided support for the last few weeks.  Upside focus is 1.3412, which is the median line of the structure from the year long channel and September low.  Proposed support is the high volume level from today at 1.3238 and 61.8% of today’s range at 1.3211.  BoE is tomorrow.

11/30 – GBPUSD bottomed today at the bottom of its channel from the June high.  The level is also defined by the March 2020 high (1.3200) and 12/21/20 spike low (these are circled).  I’m looking towards the median line of the channel near 1.3450.  If correct, then support should be 1.3250.  I like the EURUSD setup better however.

AUDUSD 4 HOUR

Aussie never made it to .7060s but the non-confirmation with NZDUSD that was discussed the last few days is in place.  Initial upside focus is 2 equal legs up from the low at .7284.  This has been a well-defined level for over the last few months.  .7125/43 is proposed support.

12/13 – AUDUSD has pulled back following a slight push above .7170.  My view is that the decline is corrective.  The 61.8% retrace is in line with the 11/30 low at .7060s.  That sticks out to me as the ideal spot for support.

NZDUSD DAILY

NZDUSD low today was .6701.  My view is that a low is in place for NZDUSD although pay close attention to .6860, which is the October low and line that extends off of highs in 2019 and 2020.  This line was support in August and September and needs to be taken out in order to indicate an important behavior change.  Watch for .6735/55 support.

12/13 – Pay close attention to NZDUSD along with AUDUSD down here.  Last week, I noted that we could get a non-confirmation where NZDUSD makes a new low but AUDUSD makes a higher low.  That scenario remains on track as Kiwi is pressing lows and AUDUSD is well above its low.  Again, .6700 is the big spot for NZDUSD.

USDCAD 4 HOUR

USDCAD didn’t quite reach 1.2952 but today’s reversal certainly classifies a ‘violent’.  This is a close-up of yesterday’s chart.  I’m looking lower towards 1.2605, which is last week’s low and near VWAP from the October low.  Proposed resistance is 1.2869/97.

12/14 – USDCAD is pressing against the 25 line from the fork that originates at the 2016 high.  This line was resistance from September-November 2020.  If price is going to reverse lower then it may not be until after a spike above 1.2952.  USDCAD turns are often violent and occur after taking out key levels.