Today may have been a lower high against the 4/17 high. Action since 4/13 has a head and shoulders look to it as well. In short there is no change to looking towards 2616/30 (bottom of the zone is VWAP from the low) in the near term. The chart below shows the current Dow chart with the Dow in 1929. The comparison is anchored with the panic lows. The rallies are similar. If this continues, then price would test the April lows (about 13% lower) before resuming higher. That would be considered the re-test but rest assured that if we did test the April low then most would expect a test of the March low and miss the buying opportunity. The April low in ES is 2424.75 and the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low is 2445.50. I think that’s the zone to focus on now.
4/21 – Today’s ES break confirms the rally from the March low as a wedge. The implication is that the March low will eventually be re-tested. Near term, I’d still watch for a bounce from 2600/30. Proposed resistance is now the underside of the broken wedge line at 2808.
Really no change in NQ. Price is just under the rising trendline as Friday trading begins in globex. 8342 remains the key near term level. A drop below there would put the April low test idea on track. That low is 7376 and the 61.8% retrace is 7522.
4/21 – NQ traded to the noted level and held…low today was 8342. Decision time! My ‘guess’ is that the level breaks since ES has completed a wedge. From a very short term pattern perspective, it appears that one more thrust lower could complete 5 waves down from the 4/16 high. Once/if the near term pattern does clear up, then I’ll share my views. All you need to know right now is that price held important support today.
It’s been a quiet and choppy week in FX. I still like USDOLLAR higher towards the mentioned levels though. Today’s low was on the 200 hour average, which reinforces that view.
4/21 – There is no change to USDOLLAR comments. Focus remains higher towards 12692. That’s the ideal level for price to attempt to carve a lower high. Another level that I’d consider as potential resistance is where the rally would consist of 2 equal legs at 12630.
GBPUSD traded into cited resistance today (high was 1.2415). The hour of the spike high today was accompanied with high volume (most hourly volume in futures since 3/31). The close of that hour is now proposed resistance at 1.2386. Near term downside focus is just the low from this week at 1.2350.
4/21 – GBPUSD broke down so focus is on the mentioned 1.2164. The bearish setup is to short a rally into the underside of the parallel that was previously support. That line is about 1.2410 now.
We had a good start with AUDUSD on the short side but it was short lived. I still like it lower, for all of the reasons mentioned recently. Those reasons include bearish seasonals, resistance from the long term channel center line (hit today again), and the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 12/31 at .6449. I’m looking at either shorting a test of .6449 or a break below .6314.
Silver has a head and shoulders look since the 4/7 high. Price has also failed near the 200 hour average several times this week and at the 61.8% retrace of the decline from 4/14 today. I’m bearish silver. Watch for a break under the short term support line (red line) for a trigger. The spot chart is shown below too.
4/7 – Today’s silver high is the exact same price as the 8/1/2019 low. It’s also a few ticks shy of where the rally from the low would subdivide by 61.8% and on the important long term parallel (full chart is shown below). I am bearish silver.