Market Update: October 19

Market Update: October 19

ByJamie Saettele

AUDUSD is pressing the center line channel center line again. The risk is for accelerated weakness following a break below the center line. Immediate focus would be the mentioned lower parallel near .6900. A break there opens up the channel extension, which intersects the top side of the trendline from the 2018 high near .6600. Resistance should be .7080s now.

10/15 – AUDUSD broke down and stabilized near the center line as suspected. Proposed resistance now is the 25 line, which has been resistance and support over the last few weeks. That is about .7135. Near term bearish focus is the lower parallel (extended off of the 9/25 low) near .6900.

Scandex Technical Weekly

Scandex Technical Weekly

ByJamie Saettele

DX futures made a 2 bar monthly volume reversal in September. This means that August was a high volume up month and at least a 12 month closing high and September was a high volume down month. This is the first bullish signal since December 2010. UUP ( Dollar ETF) also made a monthly volume reversal. Price history begins in 2007 but this is the 4th bullish reversal since then. The prior 3 nailed major turns. The 2 bearish reversals also nailed turns.

Market Update: October 15 – Antipode Breakdowns

Market Update: October 15 – Antipode Breakdowns

ByJamie Saettele

Australia’s All Ordinaries Index (local currency terms) is pressing against the underside of former trendline support. In fact, the rally from 2009 is an ending diagonal (wedge in classical charting) in the 5th wave position. Longer term, the entire rally from 1982 counts in 5 waves. The implication is that a long, drawn out corrective process is underway. Bottom line, the index is into well-defined resistance and I’m looking for price to roll over.

Market Update: October 12

Market Update: October 12

ByJamie Saettele

USDCNH has held a massive level defined by resistance in October 2017 and support from February-April 2019. Price has also turned up from the bottom of a steep bearish channel. The top of the channel is about 6.81. Strength above would be viewed as constructive. Also, the chart below shows USDCNH (in red) and DXY (in black) over the last 3 years. Every important turn was marked by non-confirmation between USDCNH and DXY. A bullish non-confirmation is in place as long as DXY is above its September low. Finally, DXY seasonal tendencies turn up now (5 year look back) and after this week (10, 20, and 30 year look backs).

Market Update: October 8

Market Update: October 8

ByJamie Saettele

It’s awfully quiet out there. EURUSD is on pace for its smallest weekly range since 2/21, which of course is right before volatility exploded. Hopefully we get something similar now. My view on EURUSD hasn’t changed. Price continues to churn just under important resistance (neckline and VWAP). I’m presenting a new fork today. Notice how highs and lows since over the last month have been on/near the 25 and 75 lines within this structure. I ‘favor’ EURUSD holding below this resistance.

Market Update: October 6 – All the same market

Market Update: October 6 – All the same market

ByJamie Saettele

I’m leading with Bitcoin today but it could be more or less anything denominated in USD because it’s ALL THE SAME. Obsess over news if you must but there is one real reason for market moves since late March…the USD. USD up and everything else down. USD down and everything else up. The chart below illustrates this fact. Regarding BTCUSD specifically, VWAP from the high was resistance. A break under the trendline would open up VWAP from the low and 2020 VWAP in the mid-8000s. The Elliot pattern suggests that an important low could form in that vicinity because it’s also the area of the former 4th wave low.