I’m thinking that ES carries into 3110/37 before encountering stronger resistance for another leg lower. The zone is defined by the 61.8% retrace and underside of the line that crosses pivots (high and lows) since 2018 (red line).
Finally something else besides ‘melt-up’. Index action in 2020 is basically straight up or straight down. Once the market picks a direction, it goes quickly in that direction without much of a counter reaction. In ES, pay attention to 2976 for a bounce. If it does bounce, then note 3065 for resistance. IF a larger reaction materializes (which would be a change) then 3137 should provide resistance.
The US dollar advanced against risk-sensitive currencies including the Australian dollar, New Zealand dollar and Canadian dollar in early trading on Thursday. The move came after a gloomy economic forecast from the Fed and reports of rising coronavirus cases in the US.
QQQ is running into lines that extend off of highs over the last 9 years. A close-up view is below. The red line extends off of the December 2014 and March 2018 highs. That line was resistance for the August 2018 and February tops. It was reached today. The line that originates at the February 2011 high is slightly higher…about 251.70 in QQQ.
USDJPY plunged today. Price could bounce from the lower parallel of the short term fork near 108.00. Proposed resistance is the year open and center line at 108.75-109.00. Seasonal tendencies have turned down and the rally from the May low is in 3 waves. The implication is that the rally is complete as a correction and that price is headed for a break of the May low of 105.99.
Gold is in its 8th week of sideways trade but that may be about to end. The drop from yesterday’s high is the 5th leg within the triangle consolidation. A level to note for support is 1704.40, which is 61.8% of the alternating leg. My ‘bias’ is that gold finds support there and then breaks out to the topside. Be nimble (always) though because a drop beneath 1684 would indicate that the sideways trade is a consolidation top.
The US dollar index closed lower for a fifth consecutive day on Monday as hopes of a faster than expected global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic took hold. Markets remained steady despite widespread civil unrest in the United States due to the death of George Floyd and ongoing US/China trade tensions.
DXY is breaking down but pay attention to 97.69 for possible support. This is the November 2018 high and center line of the channel from the March high. If price bounces from there then resistance is likely in the 98.50-99.00 zone.
GBPUSD erased most of yesterday’s rally but I remain constructive. In fact, price found support near the short term trendline that originates at the 5/18 low. I want to see strength above 1.2300 (blue line) before committing capital to the upside again though. In general, this level has been support and resistance for a little over a month.