I’m treating the area around 11600 as near term bull/bear dividing line for Nasdaq futures. As long as price is below this level, I am looking lower. 10989 is a level to be aware of within the range with broader focus on 10300-10442. This is the 7/24 low and 2 equal legs down from the September high.
Brexit will render many capital markets laws obsolete. In particular cross-border passporting rights no longer allow access to EU markets.
2011-2014 trendline support in DXY held in September. Focus is higher as long as price is above that level. 96-97 is a general zone to look towards. This zone includes the 200 week average and center line of the channel from the 2011 low.
Bonds have been the big mover leading up to the U.S. election. TLT is under the 200 day average for the first time since December 2018. The next critical level to pay attention to is 153-154. This is the bottom of a short term channel, the June low, and the long term upper parallel from the channel that originates at the 2007 low (magenta line). The upper parallel nailed tops in 2012, 2015, and 2016 and the low in June. A long term chart is below. Expect the level to act as support BUT a break below would indicate a major behavior change in TLT (and bonds generally).
Drawdown is a common principle used to measure the volatility of an investment, it is heavily relied on by forex traders for monitoring risk.
There is no change to DXY comments/opinion but I wanted to reproduce this chart because the index is nearing critical support at 92.17/30. The level is defined by long term trendline support (see longer term chart below), daily reversal support, and 2 legs down from the 9/25 high. This needs to hold if the range from late July is going to resolve to the upside.
Tight spreads are important, so is deep liquidity, but there are considerably more characteristics to the perfect FX liquidity price feed.
DXY continues to fail at channel resistance and ABOVE 94 is still needed to signal that trend has shifted from sideways to up. Until/unless that happens, be aware of another test of the long term support line near 92.30 (daily reversal support). 2 equal legs down from the 9/25 high would be 92.18. A longer term chart is shown below in order to remind that important support is under the market.
AUDUSD is pressing the center line channel center line again. The risk is for accelerated weakness following a break below the center line. Immediate focus would be the mentioned lower parallel near .6900. A break there opens up the channel extension, which intersects the top side of the trendline from the 2018 high near .6600. Resistance should be .7080s now.
10/15 – AUDUSD broke down and stabilized near the center line as suspected. Proposed resistance now is the 25 line, which has been resistance and support over the last few weeks. That is about .7135. Near term bearish focus is the lower parallel (extended off of the 9/25 low) near .6900.