Market Update: October 22

Market Update: October 22

Bonds have been the big mover leading up to the U.S. election. TLT is under the 200 day average for the first time since December 2018. The next critical level to pay attention to is 153-154. This is the bottom of a short term channel, the June low, and the long term upper parallel from the channel that originates at the 2007 low (magenta line). The upper parallel nailed tops in 2012, 2015, and 2016 and the low in June. A long term chart is below. Expect the level to act as support BUT a break below would indicate a major behavior change in TLT (and bonds generally).

Market Update: October 20

Market Update: October 20

DXY continues to fail at channel resistance and ABOVE 94 is still needed to signal that trend has shifted from sideways to up. Until/unless that happens, be aware of another test of the long term support line near 92.30 (daily reversal support). 2 equal legs down from the 9/25 high would be 92.18. A longer term chart is shown below in order to remind that important support is under the market.

Market Update: October 19

Market Update: October 19

AUDUSD is pressing the center line channel center line again. The risk is for accelerated weakness following a break below the center line. Immediate focus would be the mentioned lower parallel near .6900. A break there opens up the channel extension, which intersects the top side of the trendline from the 2018 high near .6600. Resistance should be .7080s now.

10/15 – AUDUSD broke down and stabilized near the center line as suspected. Proposed resistance now is the 25 line, which has been resistance and support over the last few weeks. That is about .7135. Near term bearish focus is the lower parallel (extended off of the 9/25 low) near .6900.