USDOLLAR daily RSI is 16.53. It’s only been that low twice (date since 2011); at the April 2011 low and the January 2018 low. Levels wise, the median line of the fork from the 2017 high is about 11950 (see close up below), which is in line with the lower parallel of the Schiff fork from the March high. It’s a logical place for a reversal.
Gold traded lower early on Thursday, as investor mood was buoyed by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve. On Wednesday, the Fed committed to leave interest rates near zero and pledged to use all its tools to support an economic recovery.
This is an analog that we’ve been following for several years. The mirror image of DXY price action from the February 1991 low closely matches price action from the March 2015 high. Figure out ‘why’ if you want but it continues to ‘work’ and I’m intrigued because the analog suggests consolidation through year end before the USD takes a digger in 2021. A close-up view is below.
So much for ‘extreme sentiment’ towards the USD. DXY dropped for a 7th straight day today. Price is now testing the trendline from the 2011 low. The lower parallel from the channel off of the March high is slightly lower…about 93.15 (see below). At this point, I’m not sure where the next level of interest is if DXY fails to hold.
Gold remained bid in early trading on Friday, underpinned by the prospect of further fiscal stimulus and simmering US/China tensions. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index fell to its lowest levels since September of 2018.