Resistance was hit today in gold. Futures printed a high of 1742.40 and spot traded 1718.70 at its best level. I obviously don’t know for certain if that was the end of the rally but it is a good sign (for a bear) that price reacted where it should have. I am bearish but not yet short. A break below the line that connects lows since 4/21 (not shown here but can be drawn on an intraday chart) would serve as the signal to short.
4/21 – Gold spiked under 1672.50 and reversed higher. The drop is in 5 waves which supports the idea that a more important high is in place. Ideal resistance is 1742.60, which is the 61.8% retrace and 4/7 high. I know that a lot of you (most?) trade spot rather than futures so I’ve included a spot chart below. The equivalent level for resistance on spot is 1709/15.
USDCAD focus remains higher towards 1.4324. Near term, I’m unsure if today’s low holds however. Proposed channel support and the 200 period average on the 4 hour chart are about 1.4090. Keep an eye on that level for support.
4/20 – A higher low may be in for USDCAD at 1.4005. The line that crosses the 3/31, 4/2, and 4/6 highs has held as support. Also, VWAP from the April high in CAD futures (which would be support in USDCAD) has held as resistance (see futures chart below). The rally from the April low in USDCAD would consist of 2 equal legs at 1.4324, just below the cited 1.4336/57 zone. Proposed support for entry is a high volume level at 1.4072. This was also resistance on 4/8 and 4/9.
Kiwi remains heavy. The bounce failed at the 200 hour average, shy of the noted .6030. I’m on alert to add to this trade on a break below .5920. Eventual downside focus is the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low at .5722. This intersects the lower parallel of the bearish fork on Friday.
4/21 – The NZDUSD drop stalled at the median line from a short term bearish fork today. This is a short term decision point. Either price consolidates/bounces before resuming lower or price breaks the median line and the decline accelerates. Eventually, the lower parallel may be where we look to exit shorts and flip to bullish. The situation is fluid but I’d expect .6030s resistance if price does bounce.
USDJPY has gone quiet. I don’t see anything to do until either waiting for a short into 108.50 or shorting a break below the line that crosses off of the 4/15 or 4/21 lows near 107.40, especially because Yen futures are holding both VWAP from the March low and VWAP from the April low (see below). Remember, support on Yen futures is equivalent to resistance on USDJPY.
4/16 – My near term USDJPY view is that price is rallying in a 3 wave correction from this week’s low. Ideal resistance is 108.32/50. The bottom of the zone is 2 equal legs up from the low and the top of the zone is the noted 108.50. Eventual downside focus is 105.05/20. As a reminder, 108.50 is my bull/bear dividing line so a move above 108.50 would turn me neutral. VWAP from the March low in futures (futures Yen low is equivalent to spot USDJPY high) and 2020 VWAP reinforce 108.32/50 as resistance in spot (see futures chart below).
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