Jamie will provide market analysis for Scandinavian Capital Markets as well as developing Scand.Ex, a traders’ interactive portal powered by Scandinavian Capital Markets.
BoE is tomorrow and it looks like the bounce to 1.2484 is the extent of the corrective bounce in wave 2 of C. Proposed resistance is now 1.2405/20, which is a well-defined horizontal level and the neckline of a short term head and shoulders.
USDJPY is nearing the center line of the channel from the 4/6 high. When a market is nearing the center line, I’m always on the lookout for acceleration in the trend…in this case that’s lower. Focus remains towards the lower channel and 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low at 105.19.
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The US dollar rallied sharply on Monday, lifted by safe haven flows as fears grew over rising tensions between the US and China. Both US President Trump and Secretary of State Mike Mike Pompeo have laid the blame for the pandemic on China.
Scand.Ex is pleased to present the next video with trading analysis by Jamie Saettele – AUDUSD Short Idea into May 2020 RBA Decision.
ES found support today from VWAP off of the Feb high. This level was resistance in March and support in April. I am treating last week’s high as the bearish risk point but given the support hit today a bigger bounce is favored. Resistance should be 2890-2930.
A flat is still possible. Thursday’s low would compose wave B. If this interpretation is correct then wave C should carry above 12593. The most likely spot for resistance remains the wave 4 and red parallel at 12692. Bottom line, USDOLLAR reacted at critical support (l0ng term magenta trendline) so focus is higher as long as price is above last week’s low.
ES reversed back below 2939.75 so I’m treating today’s high as a risk point for shorts. Proposed resistance is 2923/32, which were intraday supports on Tuesday. A proposed downside swing target is 2670ish. This is the median line of the bearish fork from the October 2018 high (was support on 3/10 before the 3/12 breakdown). VWAP from the low is currently 2672.50. This figure will rise slightly each day.