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July 30, 2021

Market Update 7/29 – GBPUSD Reversal Watch

GBPUSD hasn’t quite reached 1.4000 (high today was 1.3982) but the upper parallel was reached. I am on reversal watch in Cable right now…especially given bearish seasonal tendencies over the next few weeks (see below).
July 29, 2021

Market Update 7/28 – Levels for USD Support

7415 has been discussed in these pages for months. That level is now reinforced by the 20 day average and a short term trendline. Also, the rally from the low would consist of 2 equal legs at .7427. If a strong downtrend is underway, then .7415/30 (or so) should provide resistance. The chart below shows price with a rolling 20 day midpoint. Notice how the 20 day midpoint acts as support or resistance during strong trends.
July 28, 2021

Market Update 7/27 – European FX Levels Pre-FOMC

Focus remains higher for EURUSD following today’s hold. In fact, price pulled back to noted support and immediately turned higher. FOMC is tomorrow. The only reason I mention that is because of the potential for increased volatility. Even if you told me what Powell would say tomorrow, it wouldn’t matter. Only the reaction matters! Bottom line, price has held support (for now at least) so I’m looking higher towards the well-defined 1.1950/90 zone.
July 27, 2021

Market Update 7/26 – EURUSD Ready to Rip?

EURUSD has been churning near lows for weeks, putting in divergence with RSI on both the daily and 4 hour time frames. The break above the line from the 6/25 high warrants a long position. Watch for 1.1780 support. General focus is the center line and 25 line within the channel from the February high near 1.1930 and 1.2070 (also the 61.8% retrace).
July 22, 2021

Market Update 7/21 – USDOLLAR Reacts at Resistance

USDOLLAR put in a key reversal today after hitting parallel resistance from the pitchfork that originates at the 2017 high. I’m not sure that there is a better example of median line symmetry. Over the last 10 months, highs and lows have registered on parallels equidistant from the median line. With the specter of 5 waves up from the May low, I lean towards USD weakness from the current level.
July 21, 2021

Market Update 7/20 – Reversals in Yen Crosses

Yen crosses reversed higher today. Expanding on the implications from the Nikkei bear trap, GBPJPY tagged the 3/24 low today before reversing higher. Price also held trendline support. I’m constructive towards 150.74-151.31 (former lows).
July 20, 2021

Market Update 7/19 – Big Test for USD Bulls

We got the leg up in USDOLLAR and price has entered the a possible resistance zone. My ‘base case’ is that price does pull back before resuming higher. Keep it general for now regarding USDOLLAR.
July 16, 2021

Market Update 7/15 – Bullish Euro/Commodity FX

DXY and USDOLLAR remain in flux (one more push higher as per the 4th wave interpretation?…see yesterday’s post) but EURUSD action from the low is constructive. Price rallied in 5 waves and declined in 3 waves therefore I lean towards the long side against 1.1772. Also, don’t forget that Euro futures are holding VWAP from the March low (see below).
July 15, 2021

Market Update 7/14 – Bearish Oil and CAD

Short term waves suggest that crude has put in a lower high. Specifically, a 3 wave rally followed a 5 wave decline from a high. The implication is that another impulsive decline is underway. The March high at 68 is an initial level of interest on the downside. For context, the longer term chart is reproduced below.
July 14, 2021

Market Update 7/13 – Get Ready for RBNZ and BoC!

Kiwi continues to play out beautifully. .7000 has provided resistance the last 3 days and focus remains on .6750-.6800. RBNZ is tonight (Wednesday in New Zealand) so it’s possible that we get a flush into .6800 or so before a rebound. For us, this sets up a possible opportunity to flip from short to long.
July 13, 2021

Market Update 7/12 – USD Correcting Lower

EURUSD held VWAP from the 2020 low (again) so near term focus is higher towards the center line of the channel from the January high, which is about 1.1935. Importantly, notice that the 75 line provided support therefore the 25 line is proposed resistance if reached (as per median line symmetry). The 25 line intersects the 61.8% retrace of the decline from the May high at 1.2081. Watch for support near 1.1825.
July 8, 2021

Market Update 7/7 – EURUSD Testing Key Level

FOMC minutes were today and the ECB version is tomorrow. Price is just pips from the noted 1.1770 level (remember that’s a possible bounce level). Price is currently at VWAP from the 2020 low, which was support for the March low. Bottom line, EURUSD is into a zone that could lead to a strong bounce. If reversal evidence arises, then I’ll let you know and look to take action.
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