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September 24, 2021
USDJPY Breakout

Market Update 9/23 – USDJPY Breakout

USDJPY has broken out. If the breakout is ‘for real’, then 110.00 should provide support. A measured objective for the triangle is the 161.8% expansion of the widest part of the triangle, which is wave B. That calculation yields 114.21. However, the extreme coil in USDJPY suggests that a more aggressive target is appropriate.
September 23, 2021

Market Update 9/22 – USDJPY is ‘Coiled’ the Most Since 2014

Is USDJPY about to explode higher from a 6 month triangle? Watch for support near 109.37. Within the range, 111.00 is still possible resistance but that’s missing the bigger picture. USDJPY is the most ‘coiled’ since August 2014…right before price went on a 2000 pip run in 4 months. This observation is based on weekly Bollinger Band width (see below). Don’t forget that price is trading above multiyear trendline resistance as well. I’m on breakout alert.
September 22, 2021

Market Update 9/21 – USD Levels into FOMC

In my view, USDOLLAR has broken out and is headed to 12130/60 (the next decision point). IF price pulls back (not or later), then the parallel that has been support/resistance since June 2020 (magenta line) is proposed support along with the 50 day average at 11940. That could happen on Wednesday with FOMC, at a later date, or not at all! Bottom line, 11940 is proposed support and I’m looking towards 12130/60.
September 22, 2021

10 Years of Scandinavian Capital Markets

We’re celebrating our 10th anniversary at Scandinavian Capital Markets. We want to take this moment to reflect on how we’ve developed as an organisation in the past decade, how we’ve supported thousands of traders to realise their goals by providing the right trading conditions and tools they need and share our aspirations for the next decade of Scandinavian Capital Markets.
September 21, 2021

Market Update 9/20 – GBPJPY – Best Setup of the Year?

SPX DAILY SPX broke the channel so the next downside level to pay attention to is the full extension of the width of the channel.  That  […]
September 17, 2021

Market Update 9/16 – USDCHF Breakout!?

Plain and simple, USDCHF broke out today. Recent resistance is now proposed support at .9242. Near term upside focus is .9367. This is where the rally from the June low would consist of 2 equal legs. Trendline resistance from the April 2019 high and the center line of the channel that originates at the January low intersect near that price.
September 16, 2021

Market Update 9/15 – Big Test in USDJPY

USDJPY is testing a key spot defined by the line off of the April and August lows and the 8/16 low. Recall the bearish setup in GBPJPY (see yesterday’s post) but I’ll note the possibility of a bounce in USDJPY from the current level given the noted level and 4 hour volume reversal in futures (see below…remember that futures are quoted JPYUSD so the chart is ‘flipped’).
September 15, 2021

Market Update 9/14 – Bearish British Pound Setup

Cable put in a BIG reversal today. I’m not sure what’s going on from a pattern perspective but today’s reversal was accompanied by high volume. The chart below shows high volume (1 day) reversals in futures. Those are some good signals! Also, note that 2021 VWAP was resistance (2 charts down). ‘Levels wise’, price might bounce from near 1.3775. Watch for resistance near 1.3445.
September 14, 2021

Market Update 9/13 – Well-Defined EURUSD Trading Levels

The EURUSD drop did extend into 5 waves and a corrective bounce is underway towards 1.1850/56 (former 4th wave high and 61.8% retrace). Today’s rally is probably most of wave A. As such, a small pullback (1.1790 support) followed by another leg up should complete the corrective advance and give way to additional weakness.
September 10, 2021

Market Update 9/9 – Turkish Lira Setup

USDTRY put in a key reversal from noted resistance. The combination of technical levels and pattern (possible rounding top) makes for an amazing setup. I am bearish against today’s high.
September 9, 2021

Market Update 9/8 – Well-Defined Short Term USD Patterns

ECB is Thursday. I don’t make trading decisions based on my ‘fundamental’ analysis but I do like to know when important news events are going to be released. Not much has changed regarding the near term technical picture for EURUSD. Pay attention to parallels within the near term EURUSD bullish fork. 1.1780s and 1.1870s are proposed support and resistance. I favor shorting strength into the latter level and targeting 1.1750s (61.8% retrace).
September 8, 2021

Market Update 9/7 – USD Comeback

USDJPY has been consolidating since late March. This consolidation is taking place following a break above multiyear trendline resistance. The implication is that another leg up will take place. General long term upside focus is the LONG TERM trendline (magenta line) near 117.50. Near term, price is testing short term trendline resistance (see below). A break above would warrant a long position.