Market Update – April 27

Market Update – April 27

ByJamie Saettele

The EURUSD decline from the 3/27 high is in 3 waves. Since this decline succeeds a 5 wave rally from the March low, it’s possible that the rally from last week’s low is either a C wave or a 3rd wave. Last week’s low is also on the lower channel line from the 2019 high. This line has provided support numerous times since September (zoomed out view of the channel is below). Near term entry is unclear but keep an eye on the line off of the 3/27 and 4/14 highs for a breakout.

Market Update – April 24

Market Update – April 24

ByJamie Saettele

Today may have been a lower high against the 4/17 high. Action since 4/13 has a head and shoulders look to it as well. In short there is no change to looking towards 2616/30 (bottom of the zone is VWAP from the low) in the near term. The chart below shows the current Dow chart with the Dow in 1929. The comparison is anchored with the panic lows. The rallies are similar. If this continues, then price would test the April lows (about 13% lower) before resuming higher. That would be considered the re-test but rest assured that if we did test the April low then most would expect a test of the March low and miss the buying opportunity. The April low in ES is 2424.75 and the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low is 2445.50. I think that’s the zone to focus on now.

Market Update – April 23

Market Update – April 23

ByJamie Saettele

Resistance was hit today in gold. Futures printed a high of 1742.40 and spot traded 1718.70 at its best level. I obviously don’t know for certain if that was the end of the rally but it is a good sign (for a bear) that price reacted where it should have. I am bearish but not yet short. A break below the line that connects lows since 4/21 (not shown here but can be drawn on an intraday chart) would serve as the signal to short.

Market Update – April 21

Market Update – April 21

ByJamie Saettele

Remember the 4 hour volume reversal on 4/9? ES failed to follow through on that reversal but price is back to that level. 2923/48 wasn’t reached but the rally from the March low consist of 2 equal waves…exactly. So, there is reason to ‘think’ that a countertrend rally is complete. Pay attention to 2770, which is the trendline from the low and VWAP from the February high. A break below there would also leave the rally from March as a bearish wedge, which would suggest an eventual re-test of the low. The next immediate spot to watch then would be 2600/30 (VWAP from the low and recent resistance and support).