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Market Update – August 26
These 3 charts are from Nordea’s latest FX Weekly. The relationships between the Fed’s balance sheet / USD, Trump’s job approval / USD, and EURUSD / US-Europe Covid case count spread all point to a stronger USD from current levels.
Market Update – April 24
Today may have been a lower high against the 4/17 high. Action since 4/13 has a head and shoulders look to it as well. In short there is no change to looking towards 2616/30 (bottom of the zone is VWAP from the low) in the near term. The chart below shows the current Dow chart with the Dow in 1929. The comparison is anchored with the panic lows. The rallies are similar. If this continues, then price would test the April lows (about 13% lower) before resuming higher. That would be considered the re-test but rest assured that if we did test the April low then most would expect a test of the March low and miss the buying opportunity. The April low in ES is 2424.75 and the 61.8% retrace of the rally from the March low is 2445.50. I think that’s the zone to focus on now.
Market Update: March 2
GBPUSD completed its 5 wave drop today and focus is on identifying the end of a 3 wave corrective bounce. The ideal zone for the corrective top is 1.4050-1.4100. A small pullback followed by a rally into that zone is what I’m looking for.
Market Update 12/20 – Watch GBPUSD Closely Down Here
Cable remains above the high, although barely. I continue to ‘think’ higher in GBPUSD given the well-defined price level that price is hovering above. Again, this is VWAP from the March 2020 low and channel support. There is also the high from March 2020 and the 38.2% retrace of the rally from March 2020. Finally, there is RSI divergence on the 4 hour chart. Magenta dots in the chart below show divergent readings over the past year.
Market Update 3/21 – Stocks into Resistance
The Dow has reached and responded to the noted level for resistance. The rally from 2/24 also channels in a corrective manner (see hourly chart below). I’m ‘thinking’ lower from this level with possible support near the center line of the corrective channel (about 33860).
Market Update 3/31 – Elliott Wave Implications for Euro Crosses
EURUSD appears to be completing an A-B-C decline from the 1.1185 high. The decline would consist of 2 equal legs at 1.1017 and the 61.8% retrace of the latest leg up is 1.1038. The lower parallel from the short term bullish fork is in line with these levels. Bottom line, look slightly lower before the next leg up gets underway.