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Market Update – June 30
Trading the last few days in indices and FX is best described as a summer lull. That said, SPX focus remains on 2888. Price has respected the short term median line and 25 line the last few days. Expect acceleration lower in the median line breaks. I have no opinion on whether or not the 25 line continues to act as resistance. If it does not then the upper parallel should be watched for resistance near 3120.
GBP/USD Underpinned By Optimism Over Trade Talks, Rebound in Equities
Risk appetite returned to the market on early on Tuesday as the US Federal Reserve prepared to begin purchasing up to $250 billion in individual corporate bonds. In addition, a report from Bloomberg stating that the Trump administration is preparing a nearly $1 trillion infrastructure proposal helped to lift investors spirits.
Market Update 11/8 – November is for turkey!
DXY continues to trade at/just above a major long term level. Nothing has changed. This is support until broken (daily closing basis at least). The UUP (see below) warns that last week’s drop is a trap. The red bars on the UUP chart show when price closed at a 52 week low with volume at least as high as it was last week (1.8 x the 13 week average). Every instance except one (highlighted in yellow) was a capitulation low. Stay tuned.
Market Update 3/29 – Short GBPUSD Setup
GBPUSD spiked up to 1.3840s today before pulling back. Interestingly, 1.3840 was the level I was looking for resistance last week because that was last week’s open. Better defined resistance is 1.3880 but the rally from the low is in 3 waves and the drop from today’s high is impulsive. I like shorts into 1.3812. Given the failed break above long term trendline resistance last month, downside may be significant. Another reason to favor downside against today’s high is the fact that the rally failed near VWAP from February FOMC.
Market Update – June 19
***Happy Phi (6/18) Day! Another day of quiet for the most part (GBP was down big) but tomorrow could get interesting intraday due to June expiration.***
Market Update 5/2 – SPX Squeeze Time?
SPX took out the 2/24 low (invasion low) before reversing higher to finish with a high volume reversal (see below). The low was right at the median line of the bearish fork too. Sentiment across virtually all major asset classes is insanely extreme (USD, bonds, and equities). The median line tag and reversal from under the February low is a perfect setup for a squeeze higher. If however price breaks below the median line then the market would be in crash territory.