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Market Update: January 20
The short term median line continues to act as resistance and the 25 line continues to act as support in DXY. If price fails to hold here then the 61.8% retrace at 89.87 is possible support. The upper parallel from the Schiff fork off of the March high was resistance last week. A break above would be significant. Until then, the USD bounce is just that…a bounce.
Market Update: April 13
NZDUSD failed to turn lower from the line that extends off of the February and 3/18 highs. The structure from the February high is now a Schiff fork. The upper parallel intersects with the well-defined .7100 level and 200 period average on the 4 hour chart. If NZDUSD is lower, then .7100 is the price to short.
Market Update 4/15 – Key Support for the USD
USDCHF is into support and the level is loaded. The 38.2% retrace, 50 day average, March 2020 low, and November high span ..9180-.9210. I’m looking for a turn higher. Also, the decline from the top is impulsive so a corrective rally is expected. The trigger is above .9245
Market Update 1/25 – AUDJPY Setup in FOMC
Keep an eye on AUDJPY. Monday’s low tagged the center line of the channel from the October high. The 25 line cuts through former lows and is in line with the well-defined 82.10…watch that for resistance. A break lower would target 78.84 and 76.80s, which is 2 legs down from the October high and the lower parallel of the channel. If price breaks below the center line then the underside of that line becomes resistance. Bottom line, there are solid reference points that should help return to the short side.
Market Update 10/14 – 6 Year High in CADJPY
CADJPY traded to a 6 year high today (highest since December 2015). High 91.00s has been a precise pivot since June 2013 and RSI is in rare territory. The chart below shows instances since late 2014 when RSI has been as high as it is today (above 80). Each instances has been within days of an important price peak. I’m not willing to fade this until I see reversal evidence…but be ready!
Market Update: December 2
Gold is one of the only things I’ve gotten right recently. Watch for resistance and a reaction near 1849. If price pulls back from there then I’d keep 1800 in mind for support and a higher low against the 11/30 low.