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Gold Consolidates as Risk Appetite Picks Up
Gold started the week on the defensive after being unable to hold above the key $2,000 level late last week. Meanwhile, the US dollar has stabilized, finding its feet after falling to its lowest levels in over two years last Tuesday.
Market Update – May 15
The chart of spot gold is cleaner show I’m showing it instead of futures. Price broke out of the triangle described yesterday. That’s bullish! The top side of the former triangle line should be support now near 1720/22 (former highs at 1722).
Market Update 2/21 – Yen Crosses Lower?
CADJPY is nearing the bottom of the 2022 range. Weakness below the 1/24 low would leave a series of lower highs and lower lows since the January high although 2 legs down from that high is possible support at 89.12. The bigger level is the 161.8% extension, which intersects the lower parallel of the channel from the March 2020 low at 87.55. 90.40/60 is resistance. A zoomed out chart is below.
Market Update: February 3
CADJPY is trading at the channel resistance that originates at the 2018 high. I’m ‘thinking’ lower from the current level but have no reason to enter yet. As noted in the previous chart, crude oil is nearing a potentially important inflection point. This is in interesting given the relationship with CADJPY (see below).
Market Update 10/14 – 6 Year High in CADJPY
CADJPY traded to a 6 year high today (highest since December 2015). High 91.00s has been a precise pivot since June 2013 and RSI is in rare territory. The chart below shows instances since late 2014 when RSI has been as high as it is today (above 80). Each instances has been within days of an important price peak. I’m not willing to fade this until I see reversal evidence…but be ready!
Market Update – June 11
QQQ is running into lines that extend off of highs over the last 9 years. A close-up view is below. The red line extends off of the December 2014 and March 2018 highs. That line was resistance for the August 2018 and February tops. It was reached today. The line that originates at the February 2011 high is slightly higher…about 251.70 in QQQ.